INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF LATEST TECHNOLOGY IN ENGINEERING,  
MANAGEMENT & APPLIED SCIENCE (IJLTEMAS)  
ISSN 2278-2540 | DOI: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS | Volume XIV, Issue XII, December 2025  
Machine Learning Approaches for PM2.5 Prediction: A Comparative  
Study  
1 Md Arman Hossain Siam, 2 Md Iftakhar Ahsan Jarif, 3 Tanzil Ahmed Rahin  
1 Software Engineering Yangzhou University, China Yangzhou City, Jiangsu province, China  
2,3 Electrical Electronics and Enginerring, American International University Bangladesh,  
Dhaka,Bangladesh  
Received: 14 December 2025; Accepted: 19 December 2025; Published: 06 January 2026  
ABSTRACT  
Air pollution poses a serious environmental and public health challenge, particularly due to fine particulate  
matter (PM₂. ₅), which can penetrate deep into the human respiratory system. Accurate forecasting of PM₂. ₅  
concentrations is therefore essential for early warning systems and mitigation planning. This study presents a  
comparative evaluation of five predictive modelsLinear Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and  
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) using a multi-year hourly (PM₂. ₅) dataset from India. Model performance  
is assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of  
determination (R²). The results show that all models achieve strong predictive performance, with LSTM yielding  
the lowest MAE and RMSE, while CatBoost attains the highest R². Visual analyses, including time-series  
comparisons and observed-versus-predicted plots, further validate model robustness. The findings demonstrate  
that machine learning and deep learning approaches can provide accurate and interpretable PM₂. ₅ forecasts,  
supporting effective air quality management and decision-making air quality forecasts to facilitate prompt  
decision-making.  
KeywordsAir Quality Prediction, PM2.5 Forecasting, Machine Learning, Linear Regression; Random Forest  
XGBoost, CatBoost  
INTRODUCTION  
Air pollution constitutes a significant environmental and public health challenge globally, with fine particulate  
matter (PM2.5) representing the most severe risk owing to its capacity to infiltrate the respiratory system deeply.  
Extended exposure to PM2.5 has been linked to respiratory disorders, cardiovascular conditions, and elevated  
death rates[1]. Reports from the World Health Organization and the European Environment Agency repeatedly  
indicate that urban areas often exceed acceptable concentration limits, leading to significant health hazards and a  
decline in life expectancy [2]. The challenges have rendered the establishment of precise air quality forecasting  
systems an essential imperative.  
For decades, statistical methodologies, including autoregressive and regression-based time series models, have  
been employed to predict air pollution levels. Although useful in many circumstances, these models fail to  
adequately represent the nonlinear dynamics and intricate interactions among contaminants, climatic variables,  
and human activities  
The growing accessibility of high-resolution monitoring data and the swift advancement of data-driven  
methodologies have redirected focus towards machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) procedures, which  
can model nonlinearities more proficiently [4].  
Ensemble tree-based models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost, have become prominent in  
machine learning due to their resilience, interpretability, and capacity to manage multivariate and nonlinear data.  
Research has indicated their significant predictive accuracy in various contexts: Rosca et al. [5] determined that  
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MANAGEMENT & APPLIED SCIENCE (IJLTEMAS)  
ISSN 2278-2540 | DOI: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS | Volume XIV, Issue XII, December 2025  
Random Forest attained R² values above 99% in urban AQI prediction, whereas Rezk et al. [5]and Wang et al.  
[6] emphasised the reliability of Random Forest in sustainable monitoring systems and IoT-based applications.  
Feature selection techniques, including Sequential Forward Selection (SFS), have demonstrated efficacy in  
improving performance by pinpointing the most pertinent variables [5].  
Deep learning methods, especially recurrent neural networks like LSTM and BiLSTM, have been extensively  
investigated for air quality forecasting. These models are proficient in capturing temporal dependencies in time-  
series data. Ma et al. [7] illustrated the efficacy of an IDW-BLSTM framework for multi-granularity PM2.5  
forecasting, whereas Liu et al. [8]introduced a hybrid ITTAOsLSTMAttention model that markedly decreased  
RMSE in comparison to conventional designs. Comparable progress has been documented in research integrating  
meteorological and pollutant variables using hybrid or feature-enhanced techniques, yielding R² values exceeding  
0.96 in practical case studies [9]  
Notably, several studies indicate that simpler models can rival or even surpass complicated models under some  
circumstances. Zareba et al. [10] indicated that Ridge Regression outperformed LSTM during winter smog events,  
whereas Liu et al. [2] illustrated the efficacy of Extreme Learning Machines when enhanced by genetic  
algorithms. These findings indicate that a model's appropriateness is contingent upon aspects like data  
characteristics, feature quality, and computing limitations.  
This study focuses on three things. Firstly, it offers a consistent and equitable comparison of deep learning models,  
ensemble-based approaches, and classical machine learning models for PM₂.5 prediction under the same  
experimental settings. Second, it assesses the resilience and dependability of the model using both quantitative  
metrics and visual diagnostic assessments. Third, it provides useful information about the trade-off between  
interpretability and predictive accuracy when utilizing temporal features exclusively for air quality forecasting.  
RELATED WORK  
A substantial body of research has concentrated on devising precise methodologies for forecasting air quality,  
specifically PM2.5 concentrations, employing both conventional statistical models and sophisticated machine  
learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) techniques. Initial research frequently utilised regression and autoregressive  
models; however, these methodologies encountered difficulties with the nonlinear and spatiotemporal  
relationships inherent in air pollution data [10] The constraints of statistical methods have prompted the extensive  
use of data- driven machine learning frameworks that more effectively elucidate intricate pollutant-meteorology  
relationships [11]  
Ensemble-based machine learning approaches have gained prominence for their equilibrium between accuracy  
and interpretability. Random Forest has repeatedly exhibited superior performance in diverse scenarios, with  
Rosca et al. [8] finding an R² over 99% for urban AQI prediction and Rezk et al. [5] validating its efficacy when  
integrated with Sequential Forward Selection. Wang et al. [9] incorporated Random Forest into an IoT-enabled  
system, demonstrating its efficacy for real-time monitoring. Additional ensemble models, including XGBoost and  
CatBoost, have been evaluated and shown to be useful for nonlinear, multivariate datasets[7]  
Deep learning algorithms have greatly enhanced the field by using temporal and spatial patterns in extensive  
datasets. Ma et al. [6] introduced an IDW-BLSTM architecture for multi-granularity forecasting, whereas Liu et  
al. [2] created a hybrid ITTAOsLSTMAttention framework that minimized prediction errors relative to  
traditional recurrent networks. CNNLSTM hybrids have been developed, with Stergiou et al. [9] demonstrating  
enhanced peak pollution detection. Research by Zhou et al. [12] showed that the integration of meteorological  
data with NARX neural networks improved air quality index prediction in urban settings.  
Hybrid methodologies that amalgamate feature engineering, optimization, or sensor integration have  
demonstrated potential. El Mghouchi and Udristioiu [1]employed hybrid AI-driven models that amalgamated  
pollutant and meteorological data, attaining substantial accuracy in PM forecasting. El Mghouchi et al.  
[4]expanded upon this research using multivariable hybrid machine learning models, routinely achieving R²  
values over 0.96. Likewise, Popescu et al. [5] proved that hybrid models utilising feature selection techniques  
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ISSN 2278-2540 | DOI: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS | Volume XIV, Issue XII, December 2025  
enhanced predictive reliability. Optimisation procedures, including those utilising Particle Swarm Optimisation  
(PSO) [8]or genetic algorithms have been employed to refine models and minimise mistakes.  
Simultaneously, recent evidence indicates that simpler models should not be disregarded. Zareba et al. [5]proved  
that Ridge Regression surpassed LSTM in performance during smog occurrences in Krakow, whereas Liu et al.  
[2]illustrated the efficacy of extreme learning machines enhanced by genetic algorithms. The findings suggest  
that although advanced models frequently attain superior performance, model selection must consider dataset  
characteristics and practical limitations.  
Although numerous studies have investigated machine learning and deep learning approaches for PM₂.₅  
forecasting, most focus on a single modeling paradigm or employ different datasets, feature sets, and evaluation  
strategies, making direct comparison difficult. There remains a need for systematic comparative studies that  
evaluate classical machine learning, ensemble methods, and deep learning models under uniform experimental  
conditions. To address this gap, the present study compares Linear Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost,  
CatBoost, and LSTM using the same dataset, features, and evaluation framework, enabling a consistent and  
reproducible assessment of their relative strengths and limitations.  
MATERIALS ANS METHODS  
Linear Regression  
Linear regression is a supervised learning technique that utilizes labelled datasets for training and may predict  
data points in new datasets. The objective of linear regression is to apply a linear equation to observed data to  
model the connection between two variables. One variable is designated as the explanatory variable, and the other  
is identified as the dependent variable. The linear dependence of the dependent variable on one or more  
independent factors can be determined by fitting a linear model to the data. It forecasts continuous output variables  
based on the independent input [3].  
Random Forest  
A powerful tree-based learning technique for predictive machine learning is the random forest. All trees are  
subjected to voting for predictive purposes. This approach is commonly utilised in tasks related to regression and  
classification. This classifier generates predictions by employing multiple decision trees. Various random subsets  
of the dataset are utilised to train each tree, which are subsequently aggregated by averaging the outcomes. This  
approach enhances predictive precision. Ensemble learning underpins random forest. The mean of all the trees'  
predictions constitutes the final prediction for regression tasks. The incorporation of randomness in data sampling  
and feature selection mitigates overfitting, hence enhancing the accuracy and reliability of predictions [5].  
XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting):  
The gradient boosting technique has been enhanced by many modifications to create XGBoost, a high-  
performance variation. Tianqi Chen and Carlos Guestrin introduced the method in 2016. The algorithm's ability  
to handle missing variables, mitigate overfitting, deliver high predicted accuracy, and operate swiftly is crucial.  
Ensemble learning consolidates multiple weak methodologies to construct a robust model. XGBoost employs  
decision trees as learners and predicts sequentially to improve the method's efficacy. Each successive tree is  
designed to correct the errors of the preceding tree, a process known as boosting. XGBoost provides  
customizations that allow users to adjust model parameters to improve performance based on the specific  
problem being addressed.[1].  
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Fig. 1: schematic of XGBoost trees [1].  
Lstm (Long Short-Term Memory)  
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are a class of recurrent neural networks specifically designed to  
capture long-range temporal dependencies while mitigating vanishing and exploding gradient problems. An LSTM  
cell consists of input, forget, and output gates that regulate the flow of information through an internal cell state,  
allowing the network to retain relevant historical information over extended sequences.In this study, a single-layer  
LSTM architecture is employed, followed by a fully connected output layer to predict hourly PM₂.₅ concentrations.  
The model is trained using the Adam optimizer and Mean Squared Error as the loss function. Key hyperparameters,  
including the number of units, batch size, and number of epochs, are selected empirically to balance accuracy and  
computational efficiency.  
TABLE II. Summary of Model Architectures and Training Parameters  
Parameter  
LSTM layers  
Units  
Value  
1
64  
Optimizer  
Adam  
Loss function  
Epochs  
MSE  
50  
32  
Batch size  
Fig. 2: Structure of an LSTM Network  
Catboost  
Cat Boost is a gradient boosting technique that builds ensembles of decision trees and has been progressively  
utilised in predictive tasks, including air quality modelling [12]. It distinguishes itself from conventional boosting  
techniques by using ordered boosting, which mitigates target leakage and minimises overfitting, while adeptly  
managing categorical features without necessitating considerable preprocessing. CatBoost attains expedited  
training and prediction by the utilisation of symmetric decision trees, all while preserving elevated accuracy. Each  
tree rectifies the residuals of its predecessors, resulting in a final model that is an amalgamation of all trees.  
CatBoost's resilience, minimum parameter adjustment requirements, and capacity to handle mixed data sources  
render it an effective instrument for environmental prediction problems [5].  
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METHODOLOGY  
This study follows a structured procedure to ensure reliable prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)  
concentrations. The overall workflow consists of three main stages: (i) data acquisition and description, (ii) data  
preprocessing, and (iii) performance evaluation. These stages are organised to reflect the time-dependent nature  
of the data and the requirements of predictive modelling for air quality.  
Fig.3: Workflow of the proposed methodology  
Data Accusation & Description  
The dataset used in this study comprises hourly PM₂. ₅ concentration measurements collected from monitoring  
stations across India over a continuous multi-year period. Each record includes a timestamp, from which the  
temporal attributesyear, month, day, and hour—are derived. The PM₂. ₅ concentration is treated as the primary  
target variable for subsequent predictive modelling  
Fig.4: Daily average PM2.5 concentrations across the observation period.  
Fig.5: Monthly distribution of PM2.5 concentrations, showing seasonal variability  
Figure 5 presents boxplots of the monthly PM₂. ₅ concentration distributions across the full study period. The  
figure reveals marked seasonal variability: higher median concentrations and wider interquartile ranges are  
observed during the winter months, whereas lower central values and narrower spreads are evident during the  
monsoon and summer seasons. This indicates that winter is associated with more severe and variable pollution  
episodes, while monsoon and summer conditions are generally more favorable for pollutant dispersion and  
removal. These seasonal patterns are consistent with previously reported findings on atmospheric dispersion and  
meteorological influences in the region.  
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Taken together, the daily and monthly analyses shown in Figures 4 and 5 confirm that the dataset captures both  
short-term (day-to-day) fluctuations and long-term (seasonal) variations in air quality. This justifies the use of  
predictive modelling approaches capable of handling temporal dependencies and capturing complex time-  
varying behaviour in PM₂. ₅ concentrations. In this study, only temporal features derived from the PM₂.₅  
timestampnamely year, month, day, and hourare used as input variables. Meteorological parameters and  
additional pollutant concentrations are intentionally excluded to evaluate model performance under limited  
feature availability and to focus on temporal dependency modeling.  
Data processing  
Several preprocessing steps were applied to prepare the dataset for modelling and to ensure that the PM₂.₅ time  
series was reliable and internally consistent. First, missing PM₂.₅ values were identified in the hourly records.  
Instead of discarding incomplete observations, which would disrupt the temporal continuity of the data, the  
missing values were imputed using interpolation based on neighbouring valid measurements. This approach  
preserves the overall trend and short-term dynamics while maintaining a complete sequence of observations.  
Next, an outlier analysis was conducted to detect extreme PM₂. ₅ values that could distort model training. As  
illustrated in Fig. 6, the raw distribution contained anomalously high concentration values that were not  
consistent with the surrounding temporal pattern. These suspicious points were examined in context and either  
smoothed (for example, by replacing them with a local average) or capped at physically realistic limits. This  
procedure reduces the influence of spurious spikes while retaining genuine high-pollution episodes and, in turn,  
improves model stability.  
Fig.6: Outlier detection in PM2.5 concentrations before cleaning  
After cleaning, the dataset was normalised so that all predictor variables lay on a comparable numerical scale.  
This step is important for many machines learning algorithms, which can be sensitive to differences in feature  
magnitude. Because normalization primarily rescales the data without altering its underlying structure, its effect  
is straightforward and is therefore described textually rather than shown in a separate figure.  
Finally, a correlation analysis was performed to examine the relationships among the temporal predictors (Year,  
Month, Day, Hour) and the target variable, PM₂.₅. The correlation heatmap in Fig. 7 shows a modest negative  
correlation between Year and PM₂. ₅, suggesting a gradual decline in pollutant levels over the observation period,  
and a weak positive correlation between Hour and PM₂.₅, consistent with diurnal variation in emissions and  
atmospheric conditions. By contrast, Month and Day exhibit very low linear correlation with PM₂. ₅, indicating  
that simple linear relationships are insufficient to capture seasonal and daily cycles. This finding supports the  
use of cyclical encodings for temporal features in subsequent modelling.  
Fig. 7: Correlation heatmap of temporal features and PM₂.₅.  
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Taken together, these preprocessing stepsinterpolation of missing values, careful treatment of outliers, feature  
normalization, and correlation analysis of temporal predictorsproduced a consistent, balanced, and well-  
structured dataset suitable for effective predictive modelling of PM₂. ₅ concentrations.  
Evalution Matrics  
To comprehensively assess model performance, three statistical metrics were employed: Root Mean Squared  
Error (RMSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R²). Let 푦_푖 denote the observed PM2.5 value,  
{\ℎ푎푡{푦}}_푖the corresponding predicted value, ˉ the meaning of the observed values, and nthe total number of  
observations.  
Mean Squared Error (MAE)  
1
=1  
|
|
MAE =  
̂  
Coefficient of Determination (R²)  
( 푦̂)2  
=1  
푅^2 = 1 −  
( 푦ˉ)2  
=1  
R² represents the proportion of variance in the observed data that is explained by the model. A value closer to 1  
indicates higher explanatory power and stronger predictive performance  
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)  
1
2
(
)
RMSE = √ ̂  
=1  
RMSE is the square root of MSE and provides the prediction error in the same unit as the target variable (PM2.5).  
This makes it directly interpretable and particularly useful for quantifying the typical magnitude of large errors.  
RESULT AND ANALYSIS  
The predictive performance of the machine learning models was assessed using three evaluation metrics: Mean  
Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R²). The  
overall comparison of models is presented in Table 2.  
Table Ii. Model Comparison Based on Metrics  
Model  
MAE  
3.196  
3.271  
RMSE  
5.541  
5.323  
R^2  
XGBoost  
0.951  
0.955  
Random  
Forest  
Linear  
Regression  
3.186  
3.314  
5.296  
5.455  
0.952  
0.965  
CatBoost  
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LSTM  
2.280  
3.699  
0.956  
Table 2 presents a quantitative comparison of all candidate models in terms of MAE, RMSE, and R². The results  
show that all models achieve relatively low errors and high coefficients of determination, indicating good  
predictive capability for PM₂. ₅ concentrations. Among them, the LSTM model attains the lowest MAE and  
RMSE, while CatBoost achieves the highest R², suggesting that these two models provide the most accurate and  
reliable performance overall.  
Fig. 8: Comparative performance of models across MAE, RMSE, and R² metrics.  
Figure 8 compares the predictive performance of the five modelsXGBoost, Random Forest, Linear Regression,  
CatBoost, and LSTMusing MAE, RMSE, and R². The bar chart shows that the tree-based and linear models  
(XGBoost, Random Forest, Linear Regression, and CatBoost) achieve similar errors, with MAE values clustered  
around 3.2 and RMSE values around 5.35.5. Their R² scores are all close to 1, indicating that each model explains  
a high proportion of the variance in PM₂. ₅ concentrations.  
In contrast, the LSTM model clearly outperforms the others in terms of error-based metrics, achieving the lowest  
MAE and RMSE, which reflects more accurate pointwise predictions. Its R² value is also comparable to, or  
slightly higher than, most of the other models, although CatBoost attains the highest R² overall. Overall, Figure 8  
indicates that while all models provide strong explanatory power, the LSTM offers the best trade-off between  
accuracy and goodness of fit for PM₂. ₅ prediction.  
Now In Figures 9 and 10 present the scatter plots of observed versus predicted PM₂.₅ concentrations for the  
evaluated models. In each plot, the 45° reference line represents perfect agreement between the actual and  
predicted values. The closer the points lie to this line, the more accurate the model predictions.  
Fig. 9: Observed vs. predicted PM₂.₅ concentrations for XGBoost, Random Forest, and Linear Regression.  
In Fig. 9, the scatter plots for XGBoost, Random Forest, and Linear Regression show a dense clustering of points  
around the 45° line, indicating a generally good correspondence between observed and predicted PM₂.₅ levels.  
Although some spread is visible, particularly at higher concentration values, the overall alignment suggests that  
these models capture the main variation in the data reasonably well.  
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Fig. 10: Observed vs. predicted PM₂.₅ concentrations for CatBoost and LSTM.  
Fig. 10 displays the results for CatBoost and LSTM. Both models exhibit tight clustering of points along the 45°  
line, reflecting strong predictive accuracy. The LSTM plot, in particular, shows a more compact distribution of  
points with fewer large deviations from the reference line, especially at higher concentration ranges, indicating  
improved precision in reproducing the observed PM₂.₅ values.  
Taken together with the quantitative metrics in Table 1 and the comparative bar chart in Fig. 8, these scatter plots  
confirm that all models demonstrate satisfactory predictive capability. However, the LSTM model consistently  
yields the lowest error values, high R², and the most concentrated alignment along the 45° line. This evidence  
suggests that LSTM provides the most reliable and accurate performance for PM₂.₅ forecasting among the models  
considered in this study  
CONCLUSION  
This study conducted a systematic comparison of classical machine learning, ensemble-based, and deep learning  
models for hourly PM₂.₅ forecasting using a multi-year dataset from India. All evaluated models demonstrated  
strong predictive capability; however, the LSTM model consistently achieved the lowest MAE and RMSE,  
highlighting its effectiveness in capturing temporal dependencies in air quality data. Ensemble models such as  
Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost also performed competitively, offering robust and interpretable  
alternatives with lower computational complexity.  
While all of them were able to model the temporal dynamics of air quality reasonably well, Random Forest, Linear  
Regression, and the boosting-based approaches (XGBoost and CatBoost) had roughly comparable performance.  
Among them, the LSTM model achieved the lowest MAE and RMSE and the highest R² value consecutively  
across all experiments, showing that it yielded more accurate and reliable predictions. This confirms that the  
ability of LSTM networks to exploit sequential dependencies and long-range temporal patterns offers a clear  
advantage for environmental time-series forecasting. At the same time, tree-based models are strong baselines  
due to their robustness, interpretability, and relatively low computational cost.  
Despite the strong performance of the evaluated models, this study has several limitations. The predictive  
framework relies exclusively on temporal features derived from PM₂.₅ observations and does not incorporate  
meteorological variables or additional pollutant concentrations, which may limit physical interpretability and  
generalizability. Future research should extend the model input space to include meteorological parameters such  
as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction, as well as other pollutants including NO₂, SO₂, and O₃.  
Additionally, hybrid modeling approaches that integrate statistical methods with deep learning architectures could  
further improve forecasting accuracy and robustness across diverse urban environments.  
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