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Effect of International Migration on Unemployment and Poverty in
Nigeria: 1985 - 2020
Dr Ijeoma Blessing Unachukwu
1
, Anukam Chidozirim Stephen
2
1
Department of Economics Education School of Arts and Social Sciences Federal College of Education
Technical, Umunze, Anambra State, Nigeria
2
Department of Corporative and Rural Development Univesity of Agriculture and Environmental
Sciences Umuagwo, Imo State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2026.150300040
Received: 19 March 2026; Accepted: 24 March 2026; Published: 09 April 2026
ABSTRACT
This study examined the effect of international migration, on unemployment, and poverty in Nigeria from 1985-
2020). The data used in this study were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin (2020),
World Development Indicators and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. These comprises of annual data of the
following variables unemployment rate and poverty index serves as the dependent variables in the two models
respectively while international migration remittances, Globalization Index, and Adult literacy rate serves as the
independent variables. The test statistics used in the analysis of data was; Auto Regressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL). The results showed that; International migration proxy by international migration remittances has a
positive and significant relationship with unemployment and a negative and significant relationship with poverty
in Nigeria. it was recommended that; Enlightenment campaigns directed at recipients of remittances regarding
the benefit of investing remittance money in small and medium scale enterprises be encouraged rather than using
the money as a substitute for labor income; Nigerian governments and their agencies should manage the economy
properly and put up policies that can help to eliminate poverty which has been identified as the major force that
pushes its citizens into migration. In other words, the formulation of National Migration Policy in 2015 is not
enough. There is need to develop an accompanying policy on poverty reduction to propel the migration policy
to success; the need for Government to encourage globalization, by embarking on trade liberalization policies in
order to accelerate and sustain industrial growth and in turn a reduce poverty. They should also monitor the
movement of factor inputs as well as imported and exported goods both in and out the country by way of creating
a well secured boarders across the country and a strong and efficient Custom Officials.
Keywords: International migration, international remittance, unemployment, poverty, globalization
INTRODUCTION
International migration has been identified as one of the pathways out of poverty by poor people from the
developing countries, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries (Rufai et al. 2019). The growth rate
of net migration in the region has been identified as the highest in the world (Darkwah and Verter 2014; Ogunniyi
et al. 2017). International migration is a factor that impacts the welfare of the household, the home community,
and in the end, the whole economy in various ways (Fonta et al. 2011; Nwaru et al. 2011). Interestingly, Nigeria
remains a major contributor to the net migration in the World. According to the World Development Indicator,
the country was responsible for about 17% of the net migration in Sub-Saharan region in 2017 (ILO 2019).
Various factors (push and pull) are often responsible for the movement of people away from their usual places
of residence. In Nigeria, high levels of unemployment, migrant remittances, population growth (Darkwah and
Verter 2014), unstable politics, ethno-religious conflicts, and poverty (Adepoju 2009; Young 2013) are the major
factors promoting the massive movement of both men and women across and outside the country (Darkwah and
Verter 2014). Poor economic conditions and high levels of poverty also force people to move as they search for
better living conditions, especially the youth and young adults Ghebru et al. (2018). Migration in most cases
does not only empower the migrant but is also known for its relationship with the geographical and occupational
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mobility of labor, as the probability of moving within occupations is often higher with migration (Ghebru et al.
2018; Basso et al. 2018).
International migration all over the world has been playing important roles in the respective economies. Cross-
border migration is among the strong factors that are driving globalization in recent decades. The patterns of this
movement over the years have been changing the size, structure and efficiency of labor markets, culture, political
situations, and people in many countries across the globe.
Labor market of Nigeria is fraught with high rate of unemployment and sluggish wage adjustment not explicitly
determined by market forces. More irreconcilable is that unemployment continues to increase in the face of
consistent economic growth. Further, wages respond sluggishly to inflation rate, thereby worsening workers
welfare. High unemployment rate could be attributed to the composition of the country’s population.
Specifically, the youth constitute more than 60 per cent of total population but less than 30 per cent were able to
secure employment (NBS, 2010). Furthermore, young people are confronted with lack of demand for their newly
acquired skills, often not matching those required by the demand side of the labor market (IOM, 2010). Also,
the country has been experiencing rapid expansion of educational system which directly leads to increase in the
supply of educated manpower above the corresponding demand (Okafor, 2011).
These factors have continuously enlarged the poverty rate in Nigeria. According to the National Bureau of
Statistics (2020), 40.1% of Nigeria’s population is classified as poor, this entails that around 4 in 10 Nigerians
have real per capita expenditures below 137,430 Naira per year. As per the 2018/19 Nigeria Living Standards
Survey, over 80 million Nigerians fell below the poverty line before the covid-19 pandemic. The current estimate
suggests that the joint effects of the pandemic and population growth rate may warrant pushing additional 10
million people into the poverty line, with Nigeria set to have over a hundred million poor people by 2022. The
rural poor in Nigeria have even pulsating poverty incidence as high as 52.1% compared to 18.5% in urban areas
(NBS Nigeria Living Standard Survey, 2019; Lain & Vishwanath 2021). Against the background of this paper;
the study examines the nexus between international migration, unemployment, and poverty in Nigeria.
Objective of the study
The broad objective of this study is to examine the effect of international migration on unemployment, and
poverty in Nigeria. However, the specific objectives are:
1. To examine the relationship between migrant remittance and unemployment in Nigeria
2. To examine the relationship between migrant remittance and poverty in Nigeria
REVIEW RELARED LITERATURE
Conceptual Clarification
International Migration refers to change of residence over national boundaries, e.g. Nigeria to the USA. An
international migrant is someone who moves to a different country. International migrants are further classified
as legal immigrants, illegal immigrants, and refugees. Legal immigrants are those who moved with the legal
permission of the receiver nation, illegal immigrants are those who moved without legal permission, and refugees
are those crossed an international boundary to escape persecution. International migrants can also be said as
individuals who are strictly considered to have left their country of birth for another country based on one or
more of the factors mentioned above. Ifedi & Ezechi, (2018).
Unemployment is often defined by the classical economists as the excess supply of labor over the demand for
labor which is cause by adjustment in real wage. The Classical or real-wage unemployment occurs when real
wages for job are set above the market clearing level, causing number of job-seekers to exceed the number of
vacancies. Unemployment as defined by International Labor Organization (2009) is a state of joblessness which
occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past four weeks.
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THEORETICAL LITERATURE
This study follows a version of the neoclassical macroeconomic theory linking migration with labor market
condition developed by Kahanec et al. (2010). The theory recognizes the influence of labor union in wage and
employment determination in the face of immigration.
Meanwhile, Pryymachenko (2011) modifies the model to capture the case of source countries. Specifically, the
author pays attention to migration effect. Since the focus of this paper is on how migration influences the
unemployment and poverty, the Pryymachenko model is chosen as a framework. However, the study relaxes the
assumption of full employment found in the Pyrrmachenko (2011). Altruistic behaviour has been suggested in
the literature in the attempt to explain the motivation that underlies a migrant’s decision to remit.
Altruism is an ethical doctrine which was coined by the French philosopher, Auguste Comte (1852), as a
description of the ethical doctrine he favoured. Proponents of altruism hypothesis suggest that individual family
members are obligated to help each other and that this explains migrant remittance decisions, Rapport and
Docquier, (2006). The doctrine suggests that migrants will be willing to transmit resources to make up for the
income shortfall of family members for either their consumption or investment. Altruism hypothesis suggests
that a migrant will willingly sacrifice his or her own well-being or interest for the sake of the welfare of relations
due to the love and concern they may have for their relation’s welfare.
Empirical Literature
Okeke, (2021), examined the impact of international migrant remittances on unemployment rate in Nigeria using
two-stage least squares (2SLS) method to identify the impact of remittances on unemployment rate in Nigeria.
Findings reveal that international remittances affect unemployment negatively and there exists a unidirectional
causality between international migrant remittances and unemployment without feedback. The study
recommends that the government and other stakeholder should map out programmes that will sensitize majority
of the Nigerian populace on the benefit of investing remittance money so as to become entrepreneurs, create job
opportunities and become employers of labour.
Nwosu, Eteng, Ekpechu, Nnam, Ukah, Eyisi, & Orakwe, (2022), examined factors that propel youths to engage
in migration in spite of the dangers, as well as the relationship between bad governance, illegal migration and
modern slavery. Therefore, the study adopted qualitative research design using in-depth interviews to elicit
information from participants. Twenty-five youths from Umuozu community, Isiala-Mbano Imo State, Nigeria
was selected through stratified sampling technique. Descriptive statistics was used for data analysis. Findings
revealed that youths are aware of the dangers inherent in illegal migration yet, majority of them were willing to
risk migrating to foreign countries. Hence, there is urgent need for governments in Nigeria to institute measures
to reduce poverty and educate the youths in order to discourage illegal migration—the foundation for modern-
day slavery.
Esquivel and Huerta-Pineda (2006) investigated the effect of remittances on poverty condition among Mexican
households and find out that receiving remittance reduces the household's probability of being in food-based and
in capabilities-based poverty by 7.7 and 6.6 percentage points respectively. The authors concluded that these
effects represent a reduction of around 36 and 23 percent in the corresponding poverty rates for a typical
remittance-receiving household vis-a-vis a comparable non-remittance receiving household.
Evidence from the prevailing literature on international migration demonstrated that scanty studies have been
done to the best of our knowledge in the developed and developing countries to fathom the effect of international
migration on unemployment and poverty. However, the number of such studies is limited in Africa and
specifically very scarce in Nigeria. Few of the past studies dwelt on the economic, political and socio-cultural
factors that result in human trafficking, which is a form of migration. However, this study adopts the models of
Okeke, (2021), who examined the impact of international migrant remittances on unemployment rate in Nigeria
and Esquivel & Huerta-Pineda (2006) who investigated the effect of international remittances on poverty
condition among Mexican.
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METHODOLOGY
The research designed adopted in this study is expo factor research design. This is ideal for conducting social
research when is not possible or acceptable to manipulate the characteristics of human participant. Two models
were explored to examine the nexus between international migration, unemployment, and poverty in Nigeria.
The first model was adopted from the model of Okeke, (2021), who examined the impact of international migrant
remittances on unemployment rate in Nigeria, while the second model was adopted from the model of Esquivel
& Huerta-Pineda (2006) who investigated the effect of international remittances on poverty condition among
Mexican. However, the first model will examine the relationship between international migration and
unemployment in Nigeria, while the second model will used to examine the relationship between international
migration and poverty in Nigeria. The models are stated as thus:
UNR = (MREM, GOI, LTRA) 3.1
POVIDX= (MREM, GOI, LTRA) 3.2
Where:
UNR = represents unemployment rate
POVIDX= poverty index
MREM= migrant remittance recieved
GOI= globalization index
LTRA= adult literacy rate
Data Presentation Analysis and Interpretation
From Table 4.1 above, Adult literacy rate (LTRA) was integrated of order zero (I~(0)) as it was stationary at level
form. While unemployment rate (UNR), migrant remittance (MREM), globalization index (GOI), and poverty
index (POVIDX) weren’t not stationary at level form, but became stationary after first difference which implies
that the variables (MREM, POVIDX, GOI) were integrated of order one (I ~ (1)). The decision is based on the
fact the ADF statistics that is greater than the ADF critical values at 5%, we reject H
0
and conclude that the
variable is stationary. Since the variables are integrated of order one and zero and none of the variables is
integrated of order two. We therefore, apply the ARDL bound co-integration test.
Table 4.1: Summary of ADF Test Results at 5% Critical Value
Variable
ADF Test Statistics
Critical Value 5%
Order of Integration
Decision Rule
UNR
-5.0338
-2.9511
I⁓ (1)
Reject Ho
POVIDX
-5.7639
-2.9511
I⁓ (1)
Reject Ho
MREM
-3.8242
-2.9511
I⁓ (1)
Reject Ho
GOI
-5.9018
-2.9511
I⁓ (1)
Reject Ho
LTRA
-3.0849
-2.9484
I⁓ (0)
Reject Ho
Source: Authors Computation with E-views 12
A necessary condition for testing for ARDL bound co-integrating test is that each of the variables be integrated
of either of order one or zero or both (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 2001). Since all the variables are integrated of
order one and zero, we proceeded to estimate the ARDL bound test. The null hypothesis of ARDL bound co-
integration is that the variables are not co-integrated as against the alternative that they are co-integrated. The
decision rule is to reject the null hypothesis if the F-statistics is greater than the upper bound critical values at
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chosen level of significance. From Table 4.2 the F-statistics for the model one is 5.112 and that of mode two is
4.742, both greater than the upper (I1) bound of 3.67 at 5% level of significance.
Thus, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is presence of co-integration in both models. This
implies that there is a long run relationship between international migration, Unemployment rate, and poverty in
Nigeria. Since there is a long run relationship, we therefore estimate the short run and long run ARDL analysis.
Table 4.2: ARDL Bound Co-integration (5% critical value) Test Result for the Models
Model
K
Significance
level
Critical Bound Value
10 (Lower Bound)
11 (Upper Bound)
3.1
3
5%
2.79
3.67
3.2
3
5%
2.79
3.67
Source: Author’s Computation with E-views 12
Having ascertained that there exist a co-integrating relationship between international migration, unemployment
rate, and poverty in Nigeria, the short run relationship needs to be ascertained. From Table 4.3 above; the
coefficient of the error correction term (cointEQ) is statistically significant and carries the expected negative
sign at 5% level of significant, revealing that a short run relationship exist between international migration and
unemployment in Nigeria.
The speed of adjustment is -0.7872 that is 78.7% of the adjustment to equilibrium of the unemployment is
expected to occur in short run.
Table 4.3: Summary of Parsimonious Short Run Relationship Result between International Migration and
Unemployment Rate in Nigeria
Conditional Error Correction
Regression
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
CointEq(-1)*
-0.7872
0.1393
-5.6523
0.0000
Source: Author’s Computation with E-views 12
From Table 4.4 above; the coefficient of the error correction term (cointEQ) is statistically significant and carries
the expected negative sign at 5% level of significant, showing that a short run relationship exists between
international migration and poverty in Nigeria.
The speed of adjustment is -0.3934 that is 39.34% of the adjustment to equilibrium of poverty is expected to
occur in short run.
Table 4.4: Summary of Parsimonious Short Run Relationship Result between International Migration and
Poverty in Nigeria
Conditional Error Correction
Regression
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
CointEq(-1)*
-0.3934
0.0759
-5.2443
0.0000
Source: Author’s Computation with E-views 10
It’s imperative to ascertain the long run relationship that exists between international migration, unemployment,
and poverty in Nigeria.
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Table 4.5: Summary of Long Run Relationship between International Migration and Unemployment Rate
in Nigeria Result
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
MREM
0.000560
0.000262
2.134159
0.0487
GOI
1.385938
0.379959
3.647597
0.0022
LTRA
4.685396
0.878300
5.334623
0.0001
C
-314.9518
52.52293
-5.996463
0.0000
Source: Author’s Computation with E-views 12
Table 4.6: Summary of Long Run Relationship between International Migration and Poverty in Nigeria
Result
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
MREM
-0.000924
0.000305
-3.028222
0.0056
GOI
0.087772
0.558245
0.157228
0.8763
LTRA
-2.397722
0.803014
-2.985903
0.0062
C
189.4020
60.37251
3.137222
0.0043
Source: Author’s Computation with E-views 12
Interpretation of Long Run ARDL Result
Model 3.1
The long run coefficient in Table 4.5 shows that the joint impact of all exogenous variables (MREM, GOI, LTRA)
on the endogenous variable will amount to -314.95 units; this is on the basis that they are all held at constant. In
other word if all the exogenous variables are held at constant it will amount to -314.95-unit contribution to
unemployment rate (UNR). Migrant remittance (MREM) possessed a significant positive coefficient value of
0.0006; this implies that it shares a positive relationship with unemployment rate in Nigeria. Entailing that on
the long run, as migrant remittance received by Nigeria increases by a million dollars, it causes a 0.0006-unit
increase in unemployment rate (UNR) in Nigeria. Globalization index (GOI) has a positive significant coefficient
of 1.39, implying that as the global integration index of Nigeria increases by a unit, it will cause a 1.39 percent
increase in Nigeria’s unemployment rate in Nigeria. Adult literacy rate (LTRA) had a positive significant
coefficient of 4.69 suggesting that on the long run, as the percentage of literate adults aged 15 and above increases
by 1 percent, it causes the unemployment rate in Nigeria to rise by 4.69 percent.
Model 3.2
The long run coefficient from Table 4.7 above shows that the joint impact of all exogenous variables (MREM,
GOI, LTRA) on the endogenous variable will amount to 189.402 units; this is on the basis that they are all held
at constant. In other word if all the exogenous variables are held at constant it will amount to 189.402-unit
contribution to Poverty in Nigeria (POVIDX). Migrant remittance (MREM) has a negative significant coefficient
value of -0.001; this implies that migrant remittance has an inverse relationship with poverty in Nigeria. Entailing
that on the long run, as migrant remittance received by Nigeria increases by 1 million dollars, it causes the
Nigerian poverty rate to fall by 0.001 units. Globalization index (GOI) has an insignificant positive coefficient
of 0.09. This implies that there is a positive relationship between globalization and poverty in Nigeria. Entailing
that as Nigeria’s global integration rises by a unit, it will cause Nigerias poverty rate to increase by 0.09 percent.
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Adult literacy rate (LTRA) had a negative significant coefficient of -2.4. This implies that a negative relationship
exists between adult literacy rate and poverty in Nigeria; thus, as the percentage of literate adults aged 15 and
above increases by a percentage, it causes the Nigerian poverty rate to fall by 2.4%.
Test of Hypotheses
The individual test was carried out to test for joint significance of the independent variables on the dependent
variable at 5% level using t-probability and t-statistic shown in Table 4.5 and 4.6. The rule applied was: If t-
probability is greater than the prescribed level of 5% or 0.05, accept the null hypothesis, otherwise reject the null
hypothesis when f-probability is less than 0.05.
Hypothesis 1
Ho
1
: migrant remittance has no significant relationship with unemployment in Nigeria
Conclusion
From Table 4.5 above, the probability of t-stat of MREM was 0.0487, and less than 0.05 critical values. Thus,
we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that migrant remittance has a significant relationship with
unemployment in Nigeria
Hypothesis 2
H
02
: migrant remittance has no significant relationship with poverty in Nigeria
Conclusion
From Table 4.6 above, the probability of t-stat of MREM was 0.0056, and less than 0.05 critical values. Thus,
we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that migrant remittance has a significant relationship with poverty in
Nigeria.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary of Findings
This study examined the effect of international migration, on unemployment, and poverty in Nigeria for a 36
year period, viz; (1985-2020). The following summarizes the research work; International migration proxy by
international migration remittances has a positive and significant relationship with unemployment in Nigeria;
and a negative and significant relationship with poverty in Nigeria.
Conclusion
This study examined the effect of international migration, on unemployment, and poverty in Nigeria for a 36
year period, viz; (1985-2020). In conclusion, International migration has a significant relationship with
unemployment and poverty in Nigeria.
Recommendations
Since International migration has a positive and significant relationship with unemployment, Enlightenment
campaigns directed at recipients of remittances regarding the benefit of investing remittance money in small and
medium scale enterprises be encouraged rather than using the money as a substitute for labor income; and Since
International migration has a negative and significant relationship with poverty, As a result of all this, the study
suggests that the Nigerian governments and their agencies should manage the economy properly and put up
policies that can help to eliminate poverty which has been identified as the major force that pushes its citizens
into migration. In other words, the formulation of National Migration Policy in 2015 is not enough. There is
need to develop an accompanying policy on poverty reduction to propel the migration policy to success.
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