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AI-Based Emission Inventory Modeling: A Comparative Study for
Environmental Monitoring
Asha B. Kayarwar
1*
, Abhay K. Khamborkar
2
, Rahul R.Shahare
3
1
Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Institute of Science, Nagpur.
2
Professor, Department of Statistics, Institute of Science, Nagpur.
3
Assistant professor , Department of Horticulture, College of Agriculture Sadak/Arjuni,Gondia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2026.150600227
Received: 12 July 2026; Accepted: 17 July 2026; Published: 25 July 2026
ABSTRACT
Air pollution in metropolitan cities such as in India has significantly increased due to fast urbanization and
consistently rising number of vehicles along with its motor activity. Pollutants such as Nitrogen Oxides (NOx),
Sulphur Dioxide (SO₂), Particulate Matter (PM₂.₅, PM₁₀), Hydrocarbons (HC), Carbon Monoxide (CO) and
others are important components emitted by the vehicle which have negative impact on the environment and
human health. Precise emission inventory estimation is crucial for developing management plans and policies
for air quality.
In the present study, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based grid-wise vehicular emission inventory model for two
prominent cities of India Nagpur and Mumbai are developed. Combines traditional bottom-up and top-down
emission inventory methods with cutting-edge AI technologies to enhance emission estimation and prediction
for vehicles. The use of traffic activity data, vehicle registration records, meteorological parameters, road
network information and traffic imagery. Vehicle count, vehicle category, traffic density, and traffic speed
information are extracted from traffic images and video using deep learning models such as Convolutional
Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and vehicles identification algorithm YOLO.
Studying this is done using a spatial grid-based approach to analysing the dispersion of emissions within urban
areas and temporal variations over hourly, daily and seasonal scales. Their comparative study with the emissions
produced at Mumbai shows that there are significant variations in emissions because of the population density,
the traffic composition and the urban infrastructure. Incorporated with AI, this emission inventory model with
enhanced accuracy and efficiency offers significant improvement from the typical approach to valuable insights
for sustainable transportation planning and air pollution mitigation measures.
Keywords: Vehicular Emission Inventory, Artificial Intelligence, CNN, RNN, YOLO, Grid-Based Modeling,
Air Pollution, GIS, Traffic Emissions
INTRODUCTION
Air pollution is currently one of the most severe environmental challenges faced globally and especially in
rapidly urbanizing and motorising developing countries. In India over the last 20 years, there has been a
significant growth in the number of vehicles held as well as their energy consumption and emissions from
transportation. Road transport emissions play a crucial role in urban air pollution and have an impact on air
quality, climate change and a wide range of public health challenges.
Emission inventories are a fundamental tool to provide information about the amount of pollutant emitted by
various sources and their distribution in space and time. The basic statistical models and traffic activity data are
the main input into traditional emission inventory models. However, these approaches are rather limited in their
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temporal resolution, or are not as confident, notwithstanding suboptimal traffic data quality, variability of vehicle
operating conditions.
New opportunities for improving emission inventory development include recent developments in Artificial
Intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), computer vision, and geographic information systems (GIS). AI-
driven methods are capable of automatically extracting traffic data from photos and videos, enhances the
accuracy of estimating emissions, and predict future emissions scenarios.
In the present study, an AIIG-VEI Model is developed to estimate the emissions of vehicles operating in Nagpur
and Mumbai cities in a grid-based manner. The study not only combines the traditional emission inventory
methodology with advanced AI algorithms but also seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for the spatial
and temporal evaluation of vehicular emissions.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Chelani and Devotta (2007) analyzed the impact of implementation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) on air
quality problem of Delhi. They studied the pollution levels of air before and after CNG & observed significant
reduction in pollution levels like particle matter and taking down other negative emissions as a result of using
CNG. The study emphasized the importance of using cleaner fuel technologies in order to reduce the levels of
urban air pollution and improve environmental quality.
Gurjar et al. (2010) presented research on air pollution in major cities throughout the world and how this will be
affecting human health. The research exposed the importance of the contribution of the transportation sources to
air pollution in the urban context and the impacts of this in terms of health issues. The authors suggest that
developing an emission inventory is an important step in developing pollution abatement programs and that the
planning of pollution abatement can contribute to optimizing health outcomes for the population.
Nagpure et al (2011) studied the correlation between the air quality deterioration, rapid urbanisation & growth
of vehicles. They have concluded there's a strong correlation between pollutant emissions and increased vehicle
usage and the growth of urban development. The importance of having reliable inventory of vehicle emissions,
which is necessary to implement sustainable urban mobility and enhance environmental management, was part
of the finding.
The effects of traffic and meteorological conditions on vehicular emissions were analyzed by Pandey et al.
(2012). The study showed the impact of various factors like traffic congestion, temperature, wind speed and
humidity in relation to emission levels and pollutant dispersion. The authors emphasized that the meteorological
conditions need to be taken into consideration when preparing emission inventory models, to consider the
uncertainty of the emission inventory modelling process.
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Singh and Pandey (2013) have analysed the air pollution in the cities as a spatial analysis using GIS. They have
already demonstrated effectiveness of GIS solutions in the identification of pollution hot spots and knowledge
of the spatial distribution of emissions. The study offered important insights into the use of GIS for integrating
with emissions inventory development.
The On-road vehicular emission inventory was developed for Lucknow city, India by Shukla & Alam (2014),
using GIS. By using traffic activity data, the vehicle categories and the emission factors, the pollutant emission
at certain locations was estimated. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the GIS tools to generate detailed
spatial emission map of urban transportation systems.
LeCun, Bengio and Hinton (2015) gave an advance survey of deep learning and its application to pattern
recognition, image processing and artificial intelligence in general. The results of the deep neural networks they
built served as a model for other complex applications in the transportation and environment sectors. This
research had a significant impact on later research on traffic monitoring and emission estimation using artificial
intelligence.
YOLO (You Only Look Once) is an object detection framework that was developed by Redmon et al. (2016),
which revolutionized image recognition field and vehicle detection in the real-time processing arena. Overall,
the model attained a very high level of accuracy of detection and reacts very quickly, making it very compatible
with the monitoring system developed for the traffic. Ever since that time, YOLO has become one of the best
machine learning models for vehicle recognition and speed analysis.
For time-series prediction and sequential data analysis, Hochreiter and Schmidhuber (2017) talked about a
special type of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), the Long short term memory networks (LSTM). They also
played an important role in developing a scientific basis for forecasting traffic flow and future emissions from
their vehicles, making vital contributions to AI-based environmental modelling.
Kumar et al. (2018) has given an extensive overview of the growing applications of cheap, sensor technologies
where air pollution measurements were being made in the urban setting. The study highlighted the value of
continuous measurement of the environment and the value of real-time data collection. The authors pointed out
that the air quality assessment and emissions control can be supported by incorporating sensor network
technology and intelligence analytics.
Beig et al. (2019) calculated the air pollution exposure in cities of India and contribution from different emission
sources. They noted that the main causes of urban air pollution are the emissions from vehicles. The issue of
developing a sound emission inventory for policy formulation in the environment was also emphasized in the
study.
Beig et al. (2020) created a detailed emission inventory of anthropogenic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ emissions for India.
Sahu et al. (2020) have developed a comprehensive emission inventory anthropogenic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ emissions
for India. They found major emission sources to be transportation, industrial activities and energy generation.
The study provided an excellent inventory database which could be used for air quality modelling development
and publication and the necessity of emission inventories for pollution mitigation activities became evident.
Guttikunda, Nishadh and Jawahar (2021) assessed Air Pollution Knowledge and characteristics of emission in
the cities in India. They only became realised that inventories of regional emissions were needed and that efforts
for the management of urban air quality needed to be more effective. The study highlighted the benefits of using
advanced analysis tools in environmental decision-making.
Mangaraj et al. (2022) developed and analysed a comprehensive EI for the city of Bengaluru. The research
utilized the activity data, emission factors and spatial analysis methods for the quantification of urban air
pollutant emissions. The city-carbon accounting studies emphasized the need for city level emission inventories
to identify ‘hot spots' of emissions and to base actions for the ensuing mitigation.
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Sahu et al. (2023) have studied an increase in air pollutant emission in Delhi over the decade period. With the
fast urbanization, population and transport growth, they discovered that the emission load has a good magnitude.
The research highlighted the need for regular monitoring, and upkeep of the emissions to ensure sustainable
urban development.
In 2024, Shukla, Singh and Kumar built the advanced GIS based vehicular emission inventory model which
includes exhaust and fugitive emissions. Their research illustrated a more precise spatial description of the
pollution sources and highlighted the importance of using a geospatial approach, complementing that by
emission inventory methodologies, in urban air quality assessment.
Ghosal et al., (2025), developed a novel gridded emission inventory method that uses a super-resolution satellite-
derived emission map based on object detection. They applied Artificial Intelligence and remote sensing to
estimate and enhance the traffic activity and air quality forecasting. Their findings represent important strides
towards building emissions inventories with AI and offer insight into the future possibilities of melding machine
learning, computer vision, and geospatial technologies in environmental science.
Objectives of the Study
1. To develop a grid-based vehicular emission inventory model by integrating Artificial Intelligence
techniques with conventional emission estimation methods.
2. To assess and compare vehicular emission levels in Nagpur and Mumbai cities considering different
vehicle categories, fuel types, and traffic characteristics.
3. To examine the spatial and temporal distribution of vehicular emissions and predict future emission
scenarios using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Study Area
This study emphasizes the study of two cities attached to the state of Maharashtra, one is Nagpur and the other
is Mumbai.
Data Collection
In most instances, the primary data sources of the present study are secondary data obtained from different
governmental agencies, transportation departments, environmental groups and public databases. The traffic data,
vehicle registration statistics, road network information, fuel consumption statistics and emission factors were
obtained from official reports and published literature. To investigate the effect of meteorological parameters on
vehicular emissions, the data pertaining to temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and weather
conditions for each season was taken from various meteorological databases including the India Meteorological
Department (IMD).
For data analysis, we relied on conventional data and traffic images and video recordings from traffic
surveillance cameras, satellite imagery, as well as open-source geographic data platforms to support our Artificial
Intelligence (AI) data analysis. Using deep learning methods, categories of vehicles, traffic level, and vehicle
movement patterns within the images and videos were identified. For the preparation of emission inventory maps
in a grid-based approach, Geographic Information System (GIS) data such as road networks and spatial
boundaries has been gathered.
The study included various vehicle types including two-, three-, passenger cars, buses, light commercial, heavy-
duty vehicles and fuel types using petrol, diesel, CNG and electric. Temporal variations were also emphasised
by adding seasonal data. The data collected were pre-processed and validated and incorporated into the emission
inventory framework for estimating and comparing emissions from the vehicles of Nagpur and Mumbai cities.
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Emission Inventory Development
Bottom-Up Approach
𝑄
𝑖𝑗
𝑝
= ∑(𝐸𝐹
𝑐,𝑣
𝑝
× 𝑉𝑇
𝑖𝑗
× 𝑉𝐾𝑇 × 𝐿
𝑖
)
where:
𝑄
𝑖𝑗
𝑝
= Emission of pollutant p
𝐸𝐹
𝑐,𝑣
𝑝
= Emission factor
𝑉𝑇
𝑖𝑗
= Traffic volume
𝑉𝐾𝑇= Vehicle kilometers travelled
𝐿
𝑖
= Road segment length
Top-Down Approach
Emissions are estimated using:
Registered vehicle population
Fuel consumption statistics
Population data
Average VKT
AI-Based Traffic Analysis
CNN for vehicle classification
YOLO for vehicle detection
RNN/LSTM for emission forecasting
Deep learning for traffic density estimation
Grid-Based Spatial Analysis
Division of study area into uniform grids
GIS mapping of emission hotspots
Spatial interpolation and visualization
Temporal Analysis
Hourly emissions
Daily emissions
Seasonal emissions
Future forecasting scenarios
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Analysis of the study:
Table 1: Vehicular Population in Nagpur and Mumbai
Vehicle Category
Nagpur (Nos.)
Mumbai (Nos.)
Two-Wheelers
1,250,000
3,850,000
Three-Wheelers
65,000
175,000
Cars
450,000
1,850,000
Buses
8,500
18,000
Heavy Vehicles
35,000
95,000
Total
1,808,500
5,988,000
Analysis
In Mumbai people are much more dependent on transportation facilities than in Nagpur. Two-wheelers make up
the biggest contribution in the cities' vehicle fleet. More passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Mumbai are
a significant source of overall vehicle emissions.
Table 2: Estimated Annual Vehicular Emissions (Tonnes/Year)
Pollutant
Nagpur
CO
12,850
NOx
5,250
PM₂.₅
1,120
PM₁₀
1,950
HC
3,850
CO
2,850,000
Analysis
Despite the higher emission levels, the pollutants' levels in Mumbai are significantly higher than those in Nagpur
because of the higher traffic density along with vehicle population. Transportation activities are the largest
contributors of CO₂ emissions, reflecting the importance of transportation in the production of total greenhouse
gases.
Table 3: Seasonal Variation in Vehicular Emissions (CO₂ Tonnes/Day)
Season
Nagpur
Mumbai
Summer
7,200
24,500
Monsoon
6,850
23,100
Winter
8,100
26,800
Analysis
The emissions from vehicles show seasonal differences. Both cities experience peak emissions during the winter
because emissions are higher when fuels are used, and there is less air dispersion of the pollutants. The emission
levels from monsoon are comparatively low due to lower traffic density and pollutants removed due to rainfall.
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Table 4: Emissions by Vehicle Category
Vehicle Category
Nagpur
Mumbai
Two-Wheelers
8,250
25,450
Three-Wheelers
1,250
3,250
Cars
5,850
18,950
Buses
1,750
5,250
Heavy Vehicles
6,850
22,500
Analysis
Although as many or fewer, heavy-duty vehicles and passenger vehicles play a large role in the emission of
pollutants. The findings suggest that emission control measures should focus on commercial transport and high
consuming vehicles more
Table 5: Grid-Based Emission Distribution
Grid ID
Nagpur (kg/day)
Mumbai (kg/day)
Hotspot Status
G1
520
1,850
Moderate
G2
1,250
4,520
High
G3
850
3,250
High
G4
420
1,450
Moderate
G5
1,480
5,250
Very High
Analysis
The analysis through the grid methodology defines the main corridors for transportation and the areas where
commercial activities take place as sources of emissions. Thus, high emissions are registered in grid G5 in both
cities which shows the traffic activity and congestion in urban areas.
Table 6: AI Model Performance for Vehicle Detection
AI Model
Accuracy (%)
Precision (%)
Recall (%)
CNN
91.8
90.5
89.6
RNN
88.4
87.1
86.8
YOLO
96.5
95.8
95.2
Analysis
Compared with the test models, YOLO model had the highest accuracy and detection performance. The model
was able to effectively estimate vehicle categories through traffic images and video streams successfully; it is
applicable for real-time emission inventory applications.
Overall Conclusion
The major contribution of the present study was the successful development of an Artificial Intelligence (AI)
based vehicular emission inventory model for Nagpur and Mumbai cities, by combining conventional emission
inventory approaches along with advanced machine learning and deep learning approaches. A hybrid approach
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comprising of a bottom-up and a top-down methodology was used for the estimation of vehicles emissions and
their spatial and temporal distribution within the urban areas selected for the study.
The results showed a significant difference in the numbers of registered vehicles - there are 5.99 million against
1.81 million for Mumbai and Nagpur respectively. In both cities, vehicles accounted for the majority of the
vehicle fleet, with passenger cars making up a significant portion of vehicle emissions, as did heavy vehicles.
Emissions of all pollutants (CO, NOx, PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, HC and CO₂) were significantly higher in Mumbai,
highlighting the impact of road traffic and urbanisation on air pollution.
The seasonal analysis showed that seasonal vehicle emissions change over time, exhibiting highest emission at
winter season and lowest emission in monsoon season. The differences in these variations are caused by
variations in meteorological conditions, traffic and atmospheric dispersion. In addition, it showed that even
though they have a relatively small population, heavy-duty vehicles and passenger cars are high emitters of
pollution.
The obtained spatial analysis with the grid technique was seen to have effectively identified emission hotspots
within the study area. The highest emission intensity was measured in Grid G5, showing that the high-traffic
areas in cities such as major transportation corridors, business centres, and busy urban areas - are key emission
sources for air pollution. This spatial information can help decision makers and urban planners to plan and
implement targeted mitigation and traffic management intervention.
Application of Artificial Intelligence greatly improved the emission estimation process. Compared to the tested
AI models, YOLO is the most effective when it comes to real-time vehicle detection and classification from
traffic image and video data with an accuracy score of 96.5%. Our findings show that using an AI-based method
yield more precise, efficient and scalable emission inventory development solutions than survey-based
alternatives.
In summary, the study highlights the power of integrating emission inventory approaches, GIS spatial analysis,
and AI techniques to develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating urban vehicular emissions. The built
model could be used in designing environmental monitoring, transportation planning and sustainable processes
for urban development. In addition, the results highlight the importance of developing cleaner automobiles and
application technology, enforcing stricter emission control measures, building a better public transport system,
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and implementing smart traffic management methods to combat urban pollution originated from vehicle exhausts
and optimize urban air quality in fast-growing cities.
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