A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics of Banditry and Government Intervention in Kaduna State, Nigeria.

This study developed and analyzes a mathematical model to examine the effect of government policies on the containment of banditry in Kaduna State. Building on the existing model, the model extends existing approaches by incorporating additional compartments such as rehabilitation individuals, security agents and bandit sponsors to better capture real-world dynamics of banditry and intervention mechanisms. A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is formulated to describe the interactions among population groups and qualitative analyses including existence and uniqueness of solutions, positivity, invariant region, and banditry-free equilibrium are carried out to ensure the mathematical validity and stability of the model. The analysis reveals that the solutions remain non-negative and bounded within a biological feasible region, confirming the consistency and stability of the system. In addition, the findings show that integrated government policies involving effective security enforcement, rehabilitation programs, rehabilitation programs, intelligence gathering, and disruption of sponsor networks significantly reduce he growth and persistence of banditry. The study highlights the importance of coordinated and sustained intervention strategies in addressing insecurity in Kaduna State and demonstrates the usefulness of mathematical modelling as a predictive and policy-evaluation tool for combating banditry and related criminal activities in Nigeria. and policy-evaluation tool for combating banditry and related criminal activities in Nigeria.

Banditry, Mathematical modelling, Government policies

1. Abdullahi, A. (2019). Rural banditry, regional security and integration in West Africa. Journal of Social and Political Sciences, 2(3), 644–654. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Abdullahi, S. A., & Mukhtar, I. J. (2022). Armed banditry as a security challenge in Northwestern Nigeria. African Journal of Sociological and Psychological Studies, 2(1), 45–62. https://doi.org/10.31920/2752-6585/2022/v2n1a3 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Accord. (2022). Banditry in Nigeria: Insights from situational action and situational crime prevention theories. Conflict & Resilience Monitor. https://www.accord.org.za/thematic-area/security/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Akinwale, A. A. (2019). Insurgency and banditry in Nigeria: Causes, effects and possible solutions. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 13(3), 45–54. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Amao, O. B. (2020). Banditry and security challenges in Nigeria: The case of Northern Nigeria. African Security Review, 29(3), 1–14. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Amnesty International. (2015). “Our job is to shoot, slaughter and kill”: Boko Haram’s reign of terror in north-east Nigeria. https://www.amnesty.org [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. BBC News. (2014, April 15). Nigeria abduction: Militants kidnap schoolgirls in Chibok. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27034614 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Bello, I., & Mukhtar, J. I. (2017). An analysis of the causes and consequences of kidnapping in Nigeria. African Research Review, 11(4), 134–143. https://doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v11i4.11 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Brigid, I. O., Boniface, O., & Okonkwo, E. A. (2022). Crisis of banditry and the internally displaced persons in Nigeria: A political economy approach. Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 9(11), 247–256. https://doi.org/10.36347/sjebm.2022.v09i11.001 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Gabriel, A. O. I., & Nwala, P. (2024). The impact of banditry on Nigeria’s national interest. Journal of Political Discourse, 2(1), 197–205. https://www.jopd.com.ng [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. GlobalSecurity.org. (2023). Zamfara State banditry: Yan Bindiga / Yan Ta’adda, Operation Sharan Daji, Operation Diran Mikiya. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/op-sharan-daji.htm [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. International Crisis Group. (2019). Facing the challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). https://www.crisisgroup.org [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. International Crisis Group. (2020). Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling back the mayhem. International Crisis Group. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Lawal, J., Sule, A., & Sani, A. (2023). Modeling and optimal control analysis on armed banditry and internal security in Zamfara State. European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, 1(5), 1062–1075. https://doi.org/10.59324/ejtas.2023.1(5).93 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Ogbonnaya, M. (2020). Illegal mining and rural banditry in North West Nigeria: Responses, successes and challenges. ENACT Observer. https://enactafrica.org/enact-observer [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Rufa’i, M. A. (2021). I am a bandit: A decade of research in Zamfara State, Bandit Den. Graphic Concept Academy. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Sale, M., & Abubakar, S. (2025). Effects of containment measures on banditry in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State. Journal of Security Studies, 5(1), 45–60. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Block-Based Programming for Education: A Comprehensive Analysis of Visual Programming Environments in K-12 Learning
• Management of Academic Libraries and Client Satisfaction Towards Digital Utilization: Basis for Monitoring Library Operations in SOCCSKSARGEN Region.
• Revenue Leakages in TPA Insurance Claims and Corporate Claims: An Institutional Overview of Aster Prime Hospital, Hyderabad
• Technology and Innovation in Hospitality and Tourism: A Management Perspective
• Geospatial Distribution of Tarok Sacred Grove of Langtang North and Langtang South Local Government Areas