India's Economic Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Uncertainties: Structural Foundations, Policy Responses, and the Road Ahead

This paper examines the structural and policy determinants of India's macroeconomic resilience during the period 2024–2026, a phase characterised by acute global geopolitical stress, including escalating West Asian conflict, US trade tariff imposition, and sustained post-pandemic supply chain fragmentation. Drawing on data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Annual Report 2025–26, the Economic Survey 2025–26, IMF World Economic Outlook projections, and UN WESP 2026, the study identifies three interacting pillars of resilience: (i) robust domestic demand anchored by rising rural consumption and public capital expenditure; (ii) structural diversification of manufacturing through policy-driven frameworks such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme; and (iii) strengthened external buffers comprising record foreign exchange reserves, diversified foreign direct investment inflows, and expanded trade partnerships. India recorded GDP growth of 7.6% in FY2025–26 — up from 7.1% the prior year — maintaining its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy with an average annual growth of 7.8% across the five-year period 2021–2026. The paper further analyses key structural vulnerabilities — including currency depreciation, shallow manufacturing depth, and limited global value chain integration — and evaluates the policy recalibrations required to sustain and deepen this growth trajectory. The findings have implications for the broader literature on economic resilience in large developing economies navigating an era of geopolitical multipolarity.

Economic resilience, India, geopolitical uncertainty, GDP growth, Production-Linked Incentive, trade diversification, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic stability

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