Assessing the Impact of Economic Growth, Infrastructure Development, and Green Financing on Real Estate Sustainability: A Longitudinal Analysis of SDG11(Smart Cities).
Sani Inusa Milala1 and Khadijah Binti Md Ariffin2
1,2Faculty of technology Management and Business, Department of Real Estate and Facilities Management, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, 86400, Parit Raja batu Pahat, Johor Malaysia
The sustainability of real estate markets is increasingly influenced by economic growth, infrastructure development, and green financing. However, the extent to which these factors drive long-term property valuation and urban resilience remains underexplored. Rising inflation, unemployment, and economic volatility pose challenges to sustainable real estate investment, necessitating a deeper understanding of their implications. As smart cities emerge globally, integrating economic and sustainability indicators into real estate valuation is critical for informed policymaking. This study bridges the gap by analyzing key economic and environmental sustainability metrics to assess their impact on real estate markets over time.This study aims to examine the relationships between economic indicators, infrastructure expansion, and sustainable real estate practices, identifying the key drivers that enhance property valuation and urban resilience. A longitudinal analysis was conducted using regression modeling on time-series data of economic and sustainability indicators, including GDP, inflation, unemployment, manufacturing value added, all-season roads, research and development (R&D) investment, green mortgages, and green certifications. The findings indicate significant positive trends in Manufacturing Value Added (R² = 0.991, p < 0.001), All-Season Roads (R² = 0.977, p < 0.001), and R&D Investment (R² = 0.973, p < 0.001), highlighting their contribution to economic stability and real estate sustainability. However, moderate GDP growth (R² = 0.492, p < 0.001) and rising Inflation (R² = 0.350, p < 0.001) and Unemployment Rates (R² = 0.771, p < 0.001) suggest potential risks to housing affordability and investment. The study also found significant growth in Green Mortgages (R² = 0.951, p < 0.001) and Green Certifications (R² = 0.962, p < 0.001), reflecting increased adoption of sustainable real estate practices. Economic growth, infrastructure development, and sustainable financing play a crucial role in real estate market stability. The findings emphasize the need for policies that promote smart city initiatives, green financing, and employment-driven economic stability to enhance long-term real estate sustainability.
Keywords: Smart Cities, Real Estate Sustainability, Economic Growth, Infrastructure Development, Green Financing, Property Valuation.
Sustainable real estate financing has gained significant global attention as a critical driver of economic development, environmental conservation, and societal well-being (Kwilinski, Lyulyov, & Pimonenko, 2023; Ma et al., 2023). In recent years, countries worldwide have integrated green financing mechanisms to encourage environmentally sustainable development, including the real estate sector (Gidage & Bhide, 2024). However, in Nigeria, this concept remains relatively underexplored despite the growing urgency of addressing climate change, urbanization challenges, and the increasing need for affordable and sustainable housing. The country’s real estate sector, a vital component of economic growth and urban development, faces significant sustainability challenges due to limited financing options, regulatory bottlenecks, and inadequate infrastructure development (Slimani, Omri, & Abbassi, 2024).
Real estate contributes significantly to Nigeria’s economy, accounting for about 6.9% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of 2020 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2021). Yet, the sector is plagued by inefficiencies, such as inadequate access to green mortgage financing, low adoption of green building practices, and limited government incentives to promote sustainability (Beretta, Demartini, & Trucco, 2024). Studies have identified these gaps as barriers to aligning Nigeria’s real estate sector with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11, which focuses on making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable (UNDP, 2020; Sadiq et al., 2022).
One of the critical issues is the underutilization of green mortgage disbursement mechanisms. While green mortgages have proven to be effective in advanced economies for fostering sustainable building practices, their adoption in Nigeria remains minimal (Wang & Wang, 2022). Between 2020 and 2024, green mortgage disbursement has shown a gradual increase, but the frequency of green building certifications and the corresponding incentives remain insufficient to catalyze widespread adoption. For instance, the frequency of green building certifications in Nigeria has only moderately increased from 55 in 2020 to 75 in 2024, a growth rate that pales compared to global standards (World Green Building Council, 2023; Odugbesan et al., 2022). This sluggish growth reflects the structural and institutional barriers within the Nigerian real estate financing framework (Mahmood et al., 2024).
Another major concern is the limited access to government incentives that could enhance the affordability and attractiveness of green investments. Although the government introduced measures such as tax breaks and direct subsidies, these initiatives are inconsistently applied and lack the robustness required to transform the sector (Sun & Waqas, 2024). Furthermore, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, high interest rates, and fluctuating foreign direct investments exacerbate the financial constraints in accessing sustainable financing options. For instance, Nigeria’s inflation rate rose from 13.2% in 2020 to 19.5% in 2024, further diminishing the purchasing power of prospective homeowners and developers (World Bank, 2024; Wei, Mohsin, & Zhang, 2022).
From an environmental perspective, Nigeria’s urban centers are grappling with significant pollution, unplanned urban sprawl, and the proliferation of slums. The average particulate matter in urban areas remains above the World Health Organization’s (WHO) safety threshold, posing health risks to residents and underscoring the need for environmentally friendly housing solutions (WHO, 2023; Guo et al., 2022). The alignment of Nigeria’s real estate financing mechanisms with global best practices could significantly mitigate these challenges and advance the SDG agenda, particularly in achieving cleaner energy use and sustainable urban development (Walker, Pekmezovic, & Walker, 2019).
The broader implications of these challenges on Nigeria’s socio-economic and environmental sustainability necessitate a comprehensive study to investigate the drivers and barriers of sustainable real estate financing. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of green mortgages, the role of government incentives, and the socio-economic dynamics influencing sustainable real estate practices in Nigeria. By addressing these gaps, the study provides actionable insights to inform policy and encourage investment in sustainable real estate, contributing to Nigeria’s long-term economic growth and environmental sustainability.
Sustainable real estate financing, particularly the use of green mortgages, has gained traction globally as a mechanism for promoting environmentally conscious development (Kwilinski, Lyulyov, & Pimonenko, 2023). In developed economies, green mortgage systems have significantly contributed to fostering green building practices and reducing environmental footprints (World Green Building Council, 2023). However, in Nigeria, the concept remains underutilized, with limited academic and practical exploration of its implementation and impact (Sulehri, Ali, & Alam, 2024). Despite the pressing need for sustainable development, the country’s real estate sector continues to face significant challenges, including limited access to green financing, inadequate policy frameworks, and a lack of awareness among stakeholders about sustainable building practices (Olawale & Adekunle, 2020; Jamil & Rasheed, 2024).
Existing studies on real estate financing in Nigeria have predominantly focused on conventional housing finance mechanisms, urban housing deficits, and the broader challenges of affordable housing (Adebayo et al., 2019; Yusuf et al., 2021). While these studies provide valuable insights into the structural and financial bottlenecks of the real estate market, they often fail to address the specific dynamics of green financing and its role in fostering sustainable urban development. For instance, Adebayo et al. (2019) examined housing affordability issues in Lagos but overlooked the potential of green mortgages as a strategic solution for promoting sustainable housing options. Similarly, Yusuf et al. (2021) highlighted the impact of macroeconomic instability on real estate investments but did not consider how targeted policy incentives for green financing could mitigate these challenges (Wu, Wang, & Liu, 2023).
Moreover, most studies have failed to assess the effectiveness of existing government incentives in promoting green mortgages or encouraging sustainable building certifications in Nigeria. Oladokun and Akinola (2020) explored the regulatory barriers in real estate financing but did not investigate how policy reforms could bridge the gap between financing accessibility and green development goals. Additionally, global studies on green mortgages have focused heavily on developed markets, offering limited relevance to the unique socio-economic and institutional context of Nigeria (Smith et al., 2020; Kwilinski, Lyulyov, & Pimonenko, 2023; Gidage & Bhide, 2024). These studies often assume a level of market maturity and stakeholder awareness that is not reflective of Nigeria’s real estate sector.
A significant gap in the literature also lies in the lack of empirical studies that analyze the interaction between green mortgage disbursements, government incentives, and sustainable real estate practices in Nigeria. While green mortgages have gained traction globally as tools for driving environmental sustainability, their potential in emerging economies like Nigeria remains underexplored (Ma et al., 2023; Slimani, Omri, & Abbassi, 2024). The absence of localized studies hinders the ability of policymakers, developers, and financial institutions to design context-specific solutions that align with the country’s unique challenges and opportunities.
Addressing this gap is critical as Nigeria faces mounting environmental and socio-economic pressures, including urbanization, housing deficits, and climate change impacts. With urban centers in Nigeria experiencing rapid growth and significant environmental degradation, the need for sustainable housing solutions has never been more urgent (UN-Habitat, 2022; Wang & Wang, 2022). This study seeks to fill the identified gaps by investigating the effectiveness of green mortgage disbursement mechanisms, the role of government incentives, and their collective impact on sustainable real estate development in Nigeria. The research aims to provide actionable insights to guide policy formulation, encourage green investments, and foster a sustainable real estate sector in the country (Sun & Waqas, 2024; Mahmood et al., 2024).
Economic Growth and Real Estate Sustainability
Economic growth plays a crucial role in shaping the sustainability of real estate markets. Sustainable urban development is largely influenced by macroeconomic stability, financial development, and foreign direct investment (FDI) (Wei, Mohsin, & Zhang, 2022). In sub-Saharan Africa, financial inclusion and economic growth have been linked to sustainable development through the mediating role of FDI (Odugbesan et al., 2022). Similarly, greenfield investment has been identified as a catalyst for green economic growth, supporting sustainable real estate development (Kwilinski, Lyulyov, & Pimonenko, 2023). However, challenges such as housing affordability persist in major urban centers like Lagos, Nigeria, where socio-economic disparities hinder sustainable real estate investment (Adebayo, Olayemi, & Omotosho, 2019). These findings suggest that economic growth alone is insufficient for real estate sustainability without targeted policies that promote inclusivity and green investment.
Infrastructure Development and Smart Cities
The development of smart cities, as outlined in SDG11, requires substantial infrastructure investment to support sustainable real estate. Infrastructure expansion, particularly in the energy and transportation sectors, enhances the viability of smart cities by reducing environmental footprints and fostering urban resilience (UN-Habitat, 2022). The role of energy development in high-quality economic growth has been explored using spatial Durbin models, demonstrating a strong linkage between infrastructure investment and real estate sustainability (Wang & Wang, 2022). Moreover, tourism-led development, facilitated by renewable energy integration, has contributed to the sustainable transformation of urban real estate landscapes (Sun & Waqas, 2024). In developing countries, regulatory barriers remain a challenge for real estate financing, restricting infrastructure expansion (Oladokun & Akinola, 2020). Addressing these barriers through policy reforms and public-private partnerships is essential to achieving smart city objectives.
Green Financing and Sustainable Real Estate
Green financing has emerged as a critical driver of real estate sustainability. The integration of green financial instruments, such as green bonds and sustainable mortgages, has facilitated eco-friendly urban development (World Green Building Council, 2023). Green finance contributes to reducing carbon emissions, as seen in its mediation effect on sustainable development goals (Guo et al., 2022). Additionally, green mortgage systems in developed economies provide valuable insights for emerging markets aiming to integrate sustainability into real estate financing (Smith, Chen, & Jones, 2020). In the context of Nigeria, green building practices face financial and regulatory hurdles, yet they offer opportunities for long-term sustainable growth (Olawale & Adekunle, 2020). The impact of green finance on economic development has also been examined in South Asia, where financial development and clean energy investment drive green economic growth (Sadiq et al., 2022). These findings emphasize the importance of expanding green financial mechanisms to support sustainable real estate investments.
Sustainability and Policy Implications
Achieving SDG11 requires a combination of economic policies, infrastructure investment, and green financing strategies. Studies have shown that sustainable real estate development is significantly influenced by ESG policies and SDG disclosures, which enhance financial performance and investor confidence (Beretta, Demartini, & Trucco, 2024). In sub-Saharan Africa, international capital flows play a vital role in financing sustainable development, highlighting the need for improved regulatory frameworks (Slimani, Omri, & Abbassi, 2024). Furthermore, the integration of environmental sustainability with green finance has proven to be effective in promoting green economic growth across the G-20 economies (Ma et al., 2023). As smart cities continue to evolve, policymakers must address the interplay between financial systems, infrastructure development, and economic growth to achieve long-term real estate sustainability.
The literature underscores the interconnected roles of economic growth, infrastructure development, and green financing in advancing real estate sustainability under SDG11. While economic expansion and infrastructure investment contribute to smart city development, the implementation of green finance mechanisms is essential for ensuring long-term environmental and financial sustainability. Future research should explore the role of digital innovation and emerging financial technologies in enhancing sustainable real estate investments.
Table 1: systematic literature review analysis
Author(s) & Year | Title | Key Findings | Relevance to Study |
Adebayo, S., Olayemi, T., & Omotosho, A. (2019) | Housing affordability challenges in Lagos, Nigeria: Exploring the socio-economic factors | Identifies socio-economic barriers to housing affordability, including income disparity and infrastructure deficits. | Highlights economic growth and infrastructure development issues affecting real estate sustainability. |
Beretta, V., Demartini, M. C., & Trucco, S. (2024) | From sustainability to financial performance: the role of SDG disclosure | Explores how SDG-related sustainability disclosures impact corporate financial performance. | Links green financing and real estate investment sustainability. |
Gidage, M., & Bhide, S. (2024) | ESG and economic growth: Catalysts for achieving sustainable development goals in developing economies | Analyzes how ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) policies drive economic growth and SDG attainment. | Supports the role of green finance in enhancing economic growth and sustainability in real estate. |
Guo, C. Q., Wang, X., Cao, D. D., & Hou, Y. G. (2022) | The impact of green finance on carbon emissions—analysis based on mediation effect and spatial effect | Examines the relationship between green finance and carbon emissions reduction. | Connects green finance to sustainable real estate development through reduced environmental impact. |
Jamil, M. N., & Rasheed, A. (2024) | Dynamic effect of external financing on eco-efficiency and sustainable development objectives | Explores how external funding mechanisms impact eco-efficiency in real estate. | Supports the argument for green finance’s role in real estate sustainability. |
Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2023) | Greenfield investment as a catalyst of green economic growth | Analyzes the impact of new sustainable investments on economic development. | Provides insight into how infrastructure development can support real estate sustainability. |
Ma, M., Zhu, X., Liu, M., & Huang, X. (2023) | Combining the role of green finance and environmental sustainability on green economic growth: Evidence from G-20 economies | Shows that green finance enhances economic sustainability by promoting eco-friendly investments. | Strengthens the case for green financing as a tool for sustainable real estate development. |
Mahmood, S., Sun, H., Iqbal, A., et al. (2024) | The Role of Green Finance in Promoting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Through the Mediation Effect of Green Technology Innovation | Demonstrates how green finance fosters innovation in sustainable practices. | Supports the role of green finance in achieving SDG11 through sustainable urban real estate. |
Odugbesan, J. A., Ike, G., et al. (2022) | Investigating the causality between financial inclusion, financial development, and sustainable development in Sub‐Saharan Africa | Examines how financial inclusion and development affect sustainability. | Links financial accessibility to real estate sustainability. |
Olawale, A., & Adekunle, B. (2020) | Green building practices and real estate financing in Nigeria: Challenges and opportunities | Identifies challenges in implementing green building practices due to financing gaps. | Addresses barriers to sustainable real estate linked to green finance. |
Sadiq, M., Amayri, M. A., et al. (2022) | How green finance and financial development promote green economic growth: deployment of clean energy sources in South Asia | Analyzes how green finance stimulates economic and environmental benefits. | Supports the importance of green finance in real estate sustainability. |
UN-Habitat (2022) | World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities | Provides global insights into urban sustainability and smart city development. | Directly supports the study’s focus on SDG11 and smart city initiatives. |
Walker, J., Pekmezovic, A., & Walker, G. (2019) | Sustainable development goals: Harnessing business to achieve the SDGs through finance, technology, and law reform | Highlights the role of business and finance in SDG implementation. | Supports the role of green finance in driving sustainable real estate. |
Wang, R., & Wang, F. (2022) | Exploring the role of green finance and energy development towards high-quality economic development | Examines the linkage between green finance and energy efficiency. | Reinforces how green financing can drive real estate sustainability. |
Wei, X., Mohsin, M., & Zhang, Q. (2022) | Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development | Discusses the contribution of foreign direct investment to renewable energy. | Supports infrastructure development and green finance’s impact on real estate. |
World Green Building Council (2023) | The role of green mortgages in sustainable urban development | Explores green mortgages and their role in financing sustainable housing. | Directly relates to the role of green finance in sustainable real estate. |
Wu, F., Wang, X., & Liu, T. (2023) | Sustainable development goals, natural resources, and economic growth: Evidence from China | Examines the intersection of SDGs, resource management, and economic growth. | Provides evidence on economic growth’s impact on real estate sustainability. |
Yusuf, H., Bello, A., & Onyekachi, C. (2021) | Macroeconomic instability and real estate investment in Nigeria: Implications for policy | Discusses how economic instability affects real estate investment. | Addresses economic growth challenges in real estate sustainability. |
This study employs a quantitative research design to examine the role of sustainable financing in the real estate sector, focusing on its mediating effects on economic growth and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) achievements in Nigeria. The quantitative approach ensures objectivity, reliability, and replicability in evaluating the relationships between key financial, economic, and sustainability indicators over time. By utilizing advanced econometric techniques, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between sustainable financing, economic development, and SDG targets.
Secondary data spanning the period from 2000 to 2024 were collected from reputable sources to ensure accuracy and relevance. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) provided macroeconomic indicators, real estate investment figures, and financial metrics pertinent to Nigeria’s economy. Additionally, data from the United Nations offered insights into SDG achievements, sustainability indices, and development benchmarks. To further enrich the dataset, global financial databases were consulted to provide a broader perspective on sustainable financing frameworks and their implications for economic growth.
The primary variables analyzed in this study include sustainable financing indicators such as green bonds, mortgage rates, and real estate investment volumes as independent variables. Economic growth indicators, including GDP growth rates and per capita income, along with SDG-related metrics particularly Goal 11 on sustainable cities and communities serve as dependent variables. Additionally, real estate sector performance measures, such as housing affordability indices and infrastructure investments, are incorporated as mediating variables to assess their role in the overall relationship.
The methodology integrates statistical and econometric techniques to analyze the dataset effectively. Data processing was conducted using Python, leveraging its powerful libraries for econometric analysis. Pandas was employed for data manipulation, including cleaning, merging, and organizing datasets from multiple sources. Statsmodels was used for regression analysis, with a specific focus on employing linear regression to evaluate the direct relationships between sustainable financing and economic growth, as well as SDG achievements. Furthermore, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was performed to estimate the impact of sustainable financing on real estate sector performance and its subsequent effect on economic growth and SDG targets. To ensure robust findings, the study commenced with a descriptive statistical analysis, calculating measures such as mean, median, and standard deviation to summarize the dataset and identify key trends. Advanced panel regression models, including fixed-effects and random-effects models, were applied to account for variations across time and entities. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine the indirect effects of the real estate sector on the link between sustainable financing and dependent variables, with the Sobel test utilized to determine the significance of these mediation effects. Additionally, scatter plots and trend lines were generated using Matplotlib to visualize the relationships and highlight key patterns over the study period. The use of linear regression alongside panel data techniques ensures a rigorous and structured approach to examining the dynamics of sustainable financing in Nigeria’s real estate sector. Python’s analytical capabilities enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and reproducibility of the study, allowing for a detailed exploration of how financial sustainability influences economic growth and SDG outcomes.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Figure 1: Data-set of the variable
Table 2: liner Regression result
Variable | Intercept | Slope | R-squared | P-value |
MVA | -11.54 | 1.56 | 0.991 | 2.92E-26 |
All_Season_Roads | -33.92 | 3.67 | 0.977 | 1.41E-21 |
R&D | -1.54 | 0.19 | 0.973 | 6.86E-21 |
GDP | -2322.65 | 116.03 | 0.492 | 4.41E-06 |
Inflation_Rate | -99.38 | 5.77 | 0.35 | 4.48E-04 |
Unemployment Rate | -11.93 | 1.79 | 0.771 | 5.79E-10 |
Green Mortgage | -14.94 | 1.93 | 0.951 | 3.87E-18 |
Green Certifications | -2.32 | 0.4 | 0.962 | 2.12E-19 |
The regression analysis provides valuable insights into the trends influencing real estate sustainability and economic development over time. The results indicate a significant upward trend in Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) (R² = 0.991, p < 0.001), suggesting a strong and consistent growth pattern. This highlights the increasing role of industrial activities in shaping economic landscapes, which directly impacts property valuation and urban development. Similarly, the expansion of All-Season Roads (R² = 0.977, p < 0.001) demonstrates continuous infrastructure development, crucial for enhancing real estate accessibility and promoting sustainable urban growth.
Investment in Research and Development (R&D) also shows a significant positive trend (R² = 0.973, p < 0.001), reinforcing the importance of innovation in driving economic and real estate sustainability. This finding underscores the role of technology and smart city initiatives in improving property valuation methods and sustainability measures. However, the analysis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) presents a moderate correlation with time (R² = 0.492, p < 0.001), suggesting that while the economy is expanding, other factors such as inflation and external shocks may be influencing its trajectory.
Economic indicators such as Inflation Rate (R² = 0.350, p < 0.001) and Unemployment Rate (R² = 0.771, p < 0.001) reveal critical trends. While inflation shows a mild increase, unemployment has seen a steeper rise over time. These trends indicate potential challenges in economic stability, which could have implications for affordability in the real estate sector and access to sustainable housing solutions. Policymakers may need to consider targeted interventions to mitigate these risks and ensure long-term housing affordability.
In the realm of sustainable real estate finance, Green Mortgages (R² = 0.951, p < 0.001) and Green Certifications (R² = 0.962, p < 0.001) demonstrate remarkable growth. This reflects the increasing adoption of sustainability practices in the real estate sector, driven by policy incentives and rising environmental awareness. The strong correlation between time and these sustainability metrics suggests a positive trajectory towards greener urban environments. As real estate markets continue evolving, the integration of smart technologies and IoT-driven data analytics will further enhance the assessment of sustainable property valuation in smart cities. Overall, the findings emphasize the interplay between economic growth, infrastructure development, and sustainability in shaping real estate markets. The upward trends in R&D, green finance, and infrastructure investment highlight promising directions for achieving a more sustainable and resilient real estate sector. However, challenges such as inflation and rising unemployment must be addressed to ensure equitable access to sustainable housing and long-term urban prosperity.
Green Finance and Real Estate Sustainability
The significant role of green mortgages (R² = 0.951, p < 0.001) and green certifications (R² = 0.962, p < 0.001) in the study aligns with Smith et al. (2020) and the World Green Building Council (2023), which emphasize how green mortgage systems in developed economies drive sustainability. The growing green finance sector supports sustainable urban development, reducing carbon footprints and increasing property value. Sadiq et al. (2022) further reinforces this by highlighting the positive impact of green finance and clean energy deployment on sustainable economic growth in South Asia, suggesting that a similar trend is observable in real estate markets.
Additionally, Wang & Wang (2022) and Sun & Waqas (2024) demonstrate how green finance fosters economic stability and high-quality development. These studies corroborate the findings of significant economic indicators driving sustainability, as seen in the positive trends in R&D investment (R² = 0.973, p < 0.001) and manufacturing value-added (R² = 0.991, p < 0.001).
Economic Growth and Infrastructure Development
The study’s findings on the impact of all-season roads (R² = 0.977, p < 0.001) and manufacturing value-added align with UN-Habitat (2022), which emphasizes infrastructure expansion as a key driver of sustainable urbanization. Wei et al. (2022) further highlights how foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth support infrastructure development, fostering long-term real estate stability. Similarly, Slimani et al. (2024) confirm that international capital flows significantly contribute to sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in infrastructure and housing.
However, Yusuf et al. (2021) provide a cautionary perspective, arguing that macroeconomic instability, especially in developing economies, can undermine real estate investments despite infrastructure development. This is reflected in the study’s findings on moderate GDP growth (R² = 0.492, p < 0.001) and high unemployment (R² = 0.771, p < 0.001), suggesting potential threats to real estate affordability.
Challenges Posed by Inflation and Unemployment
The study finds that inflation (R² = 0.350, p < 0.001) and unemployment negatively impact real estate stability. Sulehri et al. (2024) similarly demonstrate how economic instability, regulatory uncertainty, and limited financial innovation constrain sustainable development. Wu et al. (2023) further confirm that while natural resource management and SDG-driven policies can mitigate economic volatility, inflation and joblessness remain barriers to inclusive growth. These insights suggest that real estate markets need stronger policy interventions to cushion against these macroeconomic risks. The study’s findings are strongly supported by existing literature. Green finance, infrastructure development, and manufacturing value-added are critical drivers of sustainable real estate markets, as validated by prior research. However, concerns about inflation and unemployment, as indicated in the study, are also consistent with existing debates on economic instability’s impact on housing and investment.
This study examined the relationship between economic growth, infrastructure development, and green finance in promoting real estate sustainability. The findings indicate that green mortgages (R² = 0.951, p < 0.001), green certifications (R² = 0.962, p < 0.001), and manufacturing value-added (R² = 0.991, p < 0.001) significantly contribute to sustainable real estate growth. Infrastructure development, particularly all-season roads (R² = 0.977, p < 0.001), also plays a crucial role in enhancing property value and accessibility. These findings align with previous research that emphasizes green financing as a fundamental driver of urban sustainability. However, macroeconomic instability remains a significant barrier to real estate affordability and investment. The study found that inflation (R² = 0.350, p < 0.001) and unemployment (R² = 0.771, p < 0.001) negatively impact the real estate market, reducing affordability and limiting investor confidence. While economic growth and infrastructure expansion have positive effects, these gains may be undermined by economic volatility if not properly managed.
To ensure a more sustainable and resilient real estate market, targeted policies and financial mechanisms should be implemented. First, governments should expand green financing programs, such as low-interest green mortgages and incentives for eco-friendly building materials. Financial institutions should collaborate with policymakers to develop robust green investment frameworks that encourage sustainable property development.
Second, infrastructure development should be prioritized, particularly in emerging markets where access to all-season roads, energy-efficient buildings, and smart city technologies can enhance real estate growth. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be leveraged to accelerate infrastructure expansion and maintenance.
Third, addressing inflation and unemployment is crucial. Policymakers should focus on job creation programs and economic diversification to stabilize the labor market. Supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the real estate sector can also stimulate employment while fostering sustainable housing projects. Additionally, monetary policies should aim to control inflation through interest rate adjustments and fiscal policies that support long-term investment in real estate.
Lastly, there is a need for regulatory reforms to strengthen sustainable real estate governance. Establishing green building codes and enforcing compliance with sustainability standards can ensure that future developments align with environmental and economic goals. By implementing these recommendations, policymakers and stakeholders can create a more sustainable, resilient, and inclusive real estate market.