Optimizing Urban Green Spaces for Reducing Heat Stress in High-Density Urban Environments Using Data-Driven Approaches

The rapid expansion of urban areas has intensified the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, particularly in high-density cities characterized by extensive impervious surfaces and limited green spaces. Rising surface temperatures increase energy consumption, reduce outdoor thermal comfort, and pose serious public health risks during extreme heat events. Urban greening is widely recognized as an effective heat mitigation strategy; however, in densely built environments, indiscriminate or uniform distribution of green spaces often fails to achieve optimal cooling benefits. This study proposes an artificial intelligence–based framework for strategically optimizing urban green space placement to maximize heat reduction while accounting for land-use constraints. The proposed approach integrates multisource remote sensing data, vegetation indices, land surface temperature measurements, and urban morphological indicators with machine learning–based thermal modeling. A Random Forest Regression model is employed to capture the nonlinear relationships between vegetation cover, built-up density, and surface temperature, followed by a spatial optimization process to identify priority locations for greening interventions. Experimental results demonstrate a strong negative relationship between vegetation density and land surface temperature, with optimized greening scenarios achieving temperature reductions of up to 2.6°C, significantly outperforming uniform greening strategies with equivalent green area allocation. The findings highlight that the spatial configuration and targeted placement of green spaces are more influential than total green cover alone. By incorporating explainable AI techniques, the framework also provides interpretable insights into the dominant drivers of urban heat, enhancing transparency for planning applications. Overall, this study offers a data-driven and decision-oriented methodology that can support urban planners and policymakers in designing effective, climate-resilient strategies for mitigating heat stress in high-density urban environments.

Urban heat island, urban greening, heat mitigation, machine learning, spatial optimization, sustainable urban planning

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