An Explainable Machine Learning Model for Early Detection of Asthma Using Clinical and Environmental Data.

Asthma is a lung disease that is a chronic respiratory disease in millions of people worldwide and, in most cases, leads to a lower quality of life and high healthcare expenditure. As early as possible, it is essential to ensure the management and prevention of serious exacerbations. The objective of the study is to come up with an explainable machine learning (ML) model, which exploits clinical and environmental data to forecast the risk of asthma in a person. The dataset combines patient-related clinical characteristics, such as age, symptoms, medical history, and results of spirometry, with the environmental variables of air pollution, humidity, and temperature. The approach will include training and testing various trained learning algorithms, such as Logistic Regression, Randome Forest, and XGBoost. SHAP and LIME are explainable AI methods that are used to achieve transparency, measure feature importance, and describe the explanation of individual predictions. The standard measurements of model performance such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score and ROC-AUC are used to evaluate model performance, ensuring predictive reliability and clinical relevance. Among the main results, it is possible to note that XGBoost gives the best predictive results in all measures, and the analysis of feature importance shows that the level of PM 2.5, humidity, wheezing, shortness of breath and the results of spirometry can be considered the most significant. Explainability analysis states that the predictions of the model are interpretable, which contributes to a better understanding of the model and clinical trust. Finally, the paper shows that a combination of clinical and environmental data with elucidatable machine learning offers a strong and clear framework to detect asthma at its initial stages. The method improves predictive power, enables informed medical decision-making, and provides a base of applied practice in healthcare systems, which ultimately increases patient outcomes and the adoption of explainable AI in respiratory medicine.

Asthma Prediction; Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI); Machine Learning; Environmental Factors; Clinical Data.

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