The Relationship Between Gold Prices and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between gold prices and stock market performance in India and other emerging markets (Brazil, China, South Africa), focusing on gold’s role as a safe-haven asset during economic crises. Employing a mixed-methods approach, we combine quantitative time-series analysis (2000–2025) with qualitative insights from investor surveys. Econometric models, including Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger Causality tests, and predictive machine learning models, were applied to examine interdependencies between stock market indices (e.g., BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty 50, and international indices) and gold prices. The study also explores the impact of digital gold investments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic factors (interest rates, currency fluctuations, geopolitical events) on traditional gold investment behaviours. Findings confirm gold’s role as a hedge during financial crises (e.g., 2008 global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic), though its effectiveness varies across markets and conditions. Predictive models offer practical tools for forecasting gold price movements, benefiting investors and policymakers in volatile markets.

Gold Price, Stock Market, Safe-Haven Asset, Digital Gold, Emerging Markets, Predictive Modelling

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