Indicators of Climate Change in Kabul City Afghanistan

Abstract: This study analyses trends in rainfall, temperature, and humidity over a 15-year period (2006–2020) to investigate the effects of climate change on Kabul City. The Afghanistan Meteorological Department provided the data used to evaluate long-term trends and spatiotemporal variability. The findings show considerable climatic variability, with monthly rainfall generally rising but noticeably falling during the monsoon season. With the exception of the summer and monsoon seasons, when increases were noted, temperature study shows that monthly maximum temperatures are decreasing for the majority of the months. Trends in humidity indicate a steady yearly increase with noticeable seasonal variations. Two severe drought events (2007–2008 and 2016–2018) and one intermediate rainy spell (2011–2014) are highlighted in the precipitation record, highlighting the insufficiency of water resources to satisfy the demands of Kabul's rapidly expanding urban population. A negative water balance has been exacerbated by over-extraction and inappropriate water usage, which has weakened urban resilience, especially in agriculture, and increased the likelihood of water scarcity. In addition to offering insights to enable adaptation methods in Kabul's urban climate environment, the study highlights the urgency of evidence-based policies for sustainable water resource management.

Kabul city, Climate Change, Rainfall, Temperature, Precipitation, Drought, Rainfall Anomally, Trend line, Annual Average

1. Aich, Valentin, Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad, Knuerr, Alec, Khoshbeen, Ahmad, Hattermann, Fred F., Paeth, Heiko, Scanlon, Andrew, and Paton, Eva Nora. 2017. "Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)South Asia Simulations". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020038 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. 2.Shokory, Jamal Abdul Naser, Schaefli, Bettina, and Lane, Stuart N.. 2023. "Water resources of Afghanistan and related hazards under rapid climate warming: a review". Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2159411 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. S, Ullah, X, Qiao, and M, Abbas. 2024. "Addressing the impact of land use land cover changes on land surface temperature using machine learning algorithms.". . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68492-7 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. S, Ullah, X, Qiao, and A, Tariq. 2025. "Impact assessment of planned and unplanned urbanization on land surface temperature in Afghanistan using machine learning algorithms: a path toward sustainability.". . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87234-x [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. J, Milner, C, Harpham, J, Taylor, M, Davies, C, Le Qur, A, Haines, and P, Wilkinson. 2017. "The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database.". . https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040093 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. 6.Radmanish, Sayed Habibullah, Rafie, Mujtaba, and Aman, Mohammad Usman. 2023. "Precipitation Assessment of Kabul City from 2006-2020". Kardan journal of engineering and technology. https://doi.org/10.31841/kjet.2023.33 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. 7.Ghulami, Masoud, Gourbesville, P., Audra, P., and Shie-Yui, Liong. 2022. "Performance evaluation of CORDEX South Asia models for projections of precipitation over the Kabul basin, Afghanistan". LHB. https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2022.2095936 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. 8.ST, Rahimi, et al.. 2024. "Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways.". . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28433 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. 9.Baig, Muhammad Hasan Ali, Abid, Uhammad, Khan, Muhammad Roman, Jiao, Wenzhe, Amin, Muhammad, and Adnan, Shahzada. 2020. "Assessing Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in Chitral Kabul River Basin Using Multiple Drought Indices". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12091417 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Y, Chen, D, Penton, F, Karim, S, Aryal, S, Wahid, P, Taylor, and SM, Cuddy. 2023. "Characterisation of meteorological drought at sub-catchment scale in Afghanistan using station-observed climate data.". . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280522 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. 11.Rasouli, Hafizullah. 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resource and Air Pollution in Kabul Sub-basins, Afghanistan". Advances in Geological and Geotechnical Engineering Research. https://doi.org/10.30564/agger.v4i1.4312 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Akhtar, Fazlullah, Awan, Usman Khalid, Tischbein, Bernhard, and Liaqat, Umar Waqas. 2018. "Assessment of Irrigation Performance in Large River Basins under Data Scarce EnvironmentA Case of Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10060972 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Baig, Sohaib and Hasson, S.. 2023. "Flood Inundation and Streamflow Changes in the Kabul River Basin under Climate Change". Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010116 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid, Dahri, Zakir Hussain, Querner, E.P., Khan, Asif, and Hofstra, Nynke. 2018. "Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040114 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. 15.Nepal, Santosh, et al.. 2021. "The fate of the snow in the western Himalaya region: A climate change perspective". None. https://doi.org/10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-16342 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Hasson, Shabeh Ul, Lucarini, Valerio, Khan, Mobushir Riaz, Petitta, Marcello, Bolch, Tobias, and Gioli, Giovanna. 2014. "Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system". Copernicus Publications. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. 17.Arian, H., Kayastha, R., Bhattarai, B., Shresta, A., Rasouli, Hafizullah, and Armstrong, R.. 2016. "Application of the Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Salang River Basin, Afghanistan Using MODIS Satellite Data". None. https://doi.org/10.3126/JHM.V9I1.15586 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Hashmi, M., Masood, A., Mushtaq, H., Bukhari, S., Ahmad, Burhan, and Tahir, A. A.. 2020. "Exploring climate change impacts during first half of the 21st century on flow regime of the transboundary Kabul River in the Hindukush region". Journal of Water and Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.094 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Rahmany, Nisar Ahmad and Patmal, Mohammad Hamed. 2021. "Impact of solar heating technology installation on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Kabul city". None. https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v4i2.56 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. 20.Schneider, Philipp, Lahoz, W. A., and A, Ronald Van Der. 2015. "Recent satellite-based trends of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over large urban agglomerations worldwide". Copernicus Publications. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1205-2015 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Haq, Zia Ul, Tariq, Salman, and Ali, Muhammad. 2015. "Tropospheric NO₂Trends over South Asia during the Last Decade (20042014) Using OMI Data". Hindawi Publishing Corporation. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/959284 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. 22.Mishra, Manisha and Kulshrestha, Umesh Chandra. 2021. "A Brief Review on Changes in Air Pollution Scenario over South Asia during COVID-19 Lockdown". Taiwan Association for Aerosol Research. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.200541 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. 23.Rasheed, Anjum, Aneja, Viney P., Aiyyer, Anantha, and Rafique, Uzaira. 2015. "Measurement and Analysis of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Urban Areas of Pakistan". Taiwan Association for Aerosol Research. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2014.10.0269 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Bhatti, Uzair Aslam, Yan, Yuhuan, Zhou, Mingquan, Ali, Sajid, Hussain, Aamir, Huo, Qingsong, Yu, Zhaoyuan, and Yuan, Linwang. 2021. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Air Pollution Particulate Matter (PM_2.5): An SARIMA and Factor Analysis Approach". Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2021.3060744 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. MY, Anwar, JL, Warren, and VE, Pitzer. 2019. "Diarrhea Patterns and Climate: A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Diarrheal Disease in Afghanistan.". . https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.18-0735 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. 26.M, Moazeni, M, Rahimi, and A, Ebrahimi. 2023. "What are the Effects of Climate Variables on COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review and Current Update.". . https://doi.org/10.4103/abr.abr_145_21 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. 27.Gyimah, Ronald Reagan. 2023. "The hot zones are cities: Methodological outcomes and synthesis of surface urban heat island effect in Africa". Cogent Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2165651 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. 28.M, Alied, A, Salam, SM, Sediqi, PA, Kwaah, L, Tran, and NT, Huy. 2023. "Disaster after disaster: the outbreak of infectious diseases in Pakistan in the wake of 2022 floods.". . https://doi.org/10.1097/ms9.0000000000001597 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. 29.Iqbal, Shahid. 2017. "Quantifying the impact of socioeconomic development and climate change on Escherichia coli concentrations in the Pakistani Kabul River". None. https://doi.org/10.18174/416179 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. 30.Najmuddin, Omaid, Deng, Xiangzheng, and Bhattacharya, Ruchira. 2018. "The Dynamics of Land Use/Cover and the Statistical Assessment of Cropland Change Drivers in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020423 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. 31.Amin, H. and Helmi, M.. 2021. "Impacts of Land-use Transformation on Agriculture land in Afghanistan, Kabul city as case study". None. https://doi.org/10.21625/essd.v6i1.791 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. 32.Macpherson, G.L., Johnson, William C., and Liu, Huan. 2015. "Viability of karezes (ancient water supply systems in Afghanistan) in a changing world". Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-015-0336-5 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. 33.Ahmad, Masood and Wasiq, Mahwash. 2004. "Water Resource Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin". None. https://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-5890-1 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. 34.Ahmadzai, Saadatullah and McKinna, A.. 2018. "Afghanistan electrical energy and trans-boundary water systems analyses: Challenges and opportunities". Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2018.06.003 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. N, Khan, M, Naushad, S, Faisal, and S, Fahad. 2020. "Analysis of Poverty of Different Countries of the World". . https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3701329 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. 36.Shroder, John F.. 2007. "Afghanistans development and functionality: Renewing a collapsed state". Springer Science+Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-008-9132- [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. 37.Hogg, Richard, Nassif, Claudia, Osorio, Camilo Gomez, Byrd, William, and Beath, Andrew. 2012. "Afghanistan in transition : looking beyond 2014.". None. https://doi.org/10.29171/azu_acku_pamphlet_ds371_4_a575_2012 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. 38.Sharp, Trueman W., Burkle, Frederick M., Vaughn, Andrew, Chotani, Rashid A., and Brennan, Richard. 2002. "Challenges and Opportunities for Humanitarian Relief in Afghanistan". Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1086/340706 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. 39.Beurs, Kirsten M. De and Henebry, Geoffrey M.. 2008. "War, drought, and phenology: changes in the land surface phenology of Afghanistan since 1982". Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1080/17474230701786109 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. 40.Milbrandt, Anelia and Overend, Ralph P.. 2011. "Assessment of Biomass Resources in Afghanistan". None. https://doi.org/10.2172/1004791 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. 2017. "Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.". . https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32336-x [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

42. 42.AH, Mokdad, et al.. 2016. "Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.". . https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30168-1 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

43. Pvara, Andrej and Pvarov, Magdalna. 2019. "Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case". Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205586 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

44. 44 Jamali, H., Rafiq, Muhammad, and Hayat, Shakeel. 2023. "An Ecosystem Valuation for Enhanced Transboundary Water Cooperation in the Kabul River Basin". Pakistan Development Review. https://doi.org/10.30541/v62i4521-537 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

45. Khuram, Izaz, Barnova, Sophia, Ahmad, Nadeem, Ullah, Asad, Din, Siraj Ud, Jan, Samin, and Hamayun, Muhammad. 2017. "Ecological assessment of water quality in the Kabul River, Pakistan, using statistical methods". De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2017-0015 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

46. 46.Crippa, Monica, Guizzardi, Diego, Pisoni, Enrico, Solazzo, Efisio, Guion, Antoine, Muntean, Marilena, Florczyk, Aneta J., Schiavina, Marcello, Melchiorri, Michele, and Hutfilter, Andres Fuentes. 2021. "Global anthropogenic emissions in urban areas: patterns, trends, and challenges". IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac00e2 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

47. 47.Duncan, B. N., Lamsal, Lok N., Thompson, Anne M., Yoshida, Y., L, Zifeng, Streets, David G., Hurwitz, M. M., and Pickering, Kenneth. 2015. "A spacebased, highresolution view of notable changes in urban NO_x pollution around the world (20052014)". Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024121 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

48. 48.J, Yao, X, Liu, and W, Hu. 2021. "Stable isotope compositions of precipitation over Central Asia.". . https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.11312 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

49. Khattak, MS, Babel, Mukand S., and Sharif, Mohammed. 2010. "Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan". Inter-Research Science Center. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00957 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

50. Li, Peng. 2024. "Analysis of the Impact of Land Use Planning on Urban Heat Island Effect". Frontiers in Science and Engineering. https://doi.org/10.54691/az33z083 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

51. Li, Ziyan. 2024. "An Investigation of Urban Heat Island Effect and Environmental Livability based on Remote Sensing Methods". Highlights in Science Engineering and Technology. https://doi.org/10.54097/mapvbb31 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

52. 52.Change, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate. 2023. "Climate Change 2022 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability". None. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

53. 53.Ghosh, Ruma, Gardner, Julian W., and Guha, Prasanta Kumar. 2019. "Air Pollution Monitoring Using Near Room Temperature Resistive Gas Sensors: A Review". Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/ted.2019.2924112 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Advanced Techniques for Fake News Detection on Twitter Using NLP and AI: A Comprehensive Review
• Review of Self Compacting Geopolymer Concrete Using Slag Sand as Fine Aggregate
• Performance of Local Construction Contractors – Case Study of Registered Contractors in Monrovia, Liberia
• Cross-Cultural Perspectives on Innovation Management in Multinational Organizations
• Modeling of Reaction Between Dissolved Oxygen (DO) And Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) in Degradation River