The Forecast in Decline of India’s Citrus Peel Exports in 2028: A Trend Analysis

India’s citrus peel exports from 2014 to 2024 have substantial declining trends, as shown by CAGR and linear regression analysis. The data reveal negative CAGRs of (-4.52%) for export volume and (-3.17%) for export value. Projections suggest that if these trends persist, export value may hit a low point by 2028. Despite an annual citrus production of approximately 16.8 million tons, exports are constrained by high post-harvest losses (up to 30.7%), elevated shipping costs (2.5 to 3 times higher), strong domestic demand (75%) and COVID-19 pandemic has undergone a gradual but impactful by 20% of the amount received in the lockdown indicated that even with high demand in the world, India was unable to effectively get its fruit to the borders. Climate issues, such as fruit splitting and pests, further diminish peel quality and export potential justify the decline of trends in citrus exports in India.  Improving storage infrastructure, pest control, and value-added processing are crucial steps to enhance export performance.

Citrus peel exports, Trade decline, post-harvest losses, Climate impact, Value addition.

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