Investigating Nigerian Product Distribution Model: Advanced Mathematical Optimization and Multi-Objective Mesh Routing for Food Distribution Logistics in Post-Subsidy Nigeria
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
The removal of fuel subsidies in Nigeria in 2023 resulted in a 150–200% increase in transportation costs, severely disrupting food distribution systems in a country where logistics costs account for approximately 22% of GDP. This study develops and evaluates a dual-optimization framework for minimizing food distribution costs under volatile economic conditions.
First, classical transportation methods—Northwest Corner Method (NWCM), Least Cost Method (LCM), Vogel’s Approximation Method (VAM), and Modified Distribution (MODI)—are evaluated using a 4×5 supply-demand case study (50,000 metric tons). Second, a novel Gokir-Nannim (GN) Model incorporating adaptive penalty functions is developed and integrated with Multi-Objective Mesh Routing (MOMR).
Results indicate that VAM achieves a 37.4% cost reduction compared to NWCM, while the GN Model achieves 39.6%. Integration with MOMR produces a 41% reduction in Total Transportation Overhead (TTO), while simultaneously reducing delivery time by 28% and increasing reliability by 17%.
Sensitivity analysis under ±30% fuel volatility confirms superior resilience of GN+MOMR compared to classical methods. The findings demonstrate that adaptive, multi-objective optimization can substantially mitigate the inflationary effects of subsidy removal and reduce national logistics costs from 22% to approximately 13% of GDP.
Downloads
References
Adamu I. K., Suleiman . K. and Yunusa K. G. D.(2020) Optimization of Total Transportation Cost. Global Journal Of Pure And Applied Sciences . 26(2020): 57-63. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.4314/gjpas.v26i1.7
Adenikinju, A. (2009). Energy pricing and subsidy reforms in Nigeria. International Association for Energy Economics Conference Proceedings, 1–15.
Adeniyi S. O. , Amanze C. E. , Adeniyi O. , Mba O. O.(2023) The Vogel Approximation and North West Corner Transportation Models for Optimal Cost Distribution of Dangote Cement. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology. 8(5) Pp. 1364-1369
Agarwal R and Shinde D. K. (2022) Vehicle Allotment and Route Optimization for Transportation Services Using Logistics Techniques in Supply Chain Management.
Proceedings of the 2nd Indian International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Warangal, Telangana, India, August 16-18. PP 45-53
Akpan, W. A ., Awaka- Ama, E.J. and Ikrang, E.G (2020) Optimization of Products Transportation and Distribution Network. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT) 9(2) Pp 181-184
Alli, N. G., Jubril, T. S. and Bello, L. T. (2024) Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Nigeria's Supply Chain: A Case Study Analysis. International Journal of Studies in Business Management, Economics and Strategies. 3(4). 125-143
Aliyu M. L., Usman U., Babayaro Z. and Aminu M. K. (2019) A Minimization of the Cost of Transportation. American Journal of Operational Research 2019, 9(1): 1-7 DOI: 10.5923/j.ajor.20190901.01
Amorim, P., & Almada-Lobo, B. (2014). The impact of food perishability issues in the vehicle routing problem. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 67, 223–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2013.11.006
Avila-Torres P. A., Arratia-Martinez N. M. and Ruiz-y-Ruiz E. (2020) The Inventory Routing Problem with Priorities and Fixed Heterogeneous Fleet. Appl. Sci. 10, 3502; doi:10.3390/app10103502
Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1954). The stepping stone method of explaining linear programming calculations in transportation problems. Management Science, 1(1), 49–69. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1.1.49
Daniel, E. E. and Agada P.O. (2020) Transportation Optimization Model for Cement Distribution. Abacus (Mathematics Science Series) 47(1): 212-225
Daniel, E. E., Udeh, P. C., Ibrahim, I., Abubakar A. B. and Danhausa A. A. (2021) Transportation Optimization Model, Analysis for Cement Distribution and Risk Reduction. Abacus (Mathematics Science Series) 48(2) 110-117
Dantzig, G. B. (1951). Application of the simplex method to a transportation problem. In T. C. Koopmans (Ed.), Activity analysis of production and allocation (pp. 359–373). John Wiley & Sons.
Dantzig, G. B. (1963). Linear programming and extensions. Princeton University Press.
Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., & Meyarivan, T. (2002). A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II. IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, 6(2), 182–197. https://doi.org/10.1109/4235.996017
Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multicriteria optimization (2nd ed.). Springer.
Ezekiel A. M. (2024) Effects of Petroleum Products Price Hike on The Supply of Agricultural Products in Nigeria – A Review. FUDMA Journal of Agriculture and Agricultural. 10(3) Pp.19-25. https://doi.org/10.33003/jaat.2024.1003.03
Hitchcock, F. L. (1941). The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities. Journal of Mathematics and Physics, 20(1–4), 224–230. https://doi.org/10.1002/sapm1941201224
Hussaini, A. S., Oladimeji, Y. U., Sani, A. A., Umar, M.and Udeh, B. E (2025) Effects of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Price Trend of Staple Food Crops in Kaduna Municipal, Nigeria. Umteb – Xvii International Scientific Research Congress.
Ikechukwu E. C., Nwagbala S. C. and Ezeanokwasa F. N. (2025) Fuel subsidy removal and performance of SMEs in Anambra State Nigeria. International Journal of Financial, Accounting, and Management (IJFAM) 6(4) 585-599
Ilodigwe A. O (2023) Fuel Subsidy Removal and Its Negative Impact on Small and Medium Scale Enterprises. Journal of Education, Humanities, Management & Social Sciences (JEHMSS). Pp 25-35
Islam S., Biswas H. R., Khatun U.H., Rani R., Nourin S. I. (2024) Optimizing Transportation Logistics for Cost Efficiency in a Garment Factory: A Linear Programming Approach Using LINDO. Sch J Phys Math Stat, 11(10): 146-149.
Jiang Q. and Wang H. (2025) Risk Assessment and Hybrid Algorithm Transportation path optimization for Model Road Transport of Dangerous Goods. IATSS Research 49(2025) 72-80
Jolaiya O. F.and Akinmulegun S. O.(2025) The Fuel Subsidy Removal and the Performance of Transport Sector: A Study of Selected Transport Firms in Nigeria. Journal of Public Administration and Social Welfare Research. 10( 1) Pp 73-86
Justinah. O. O. and Oseyemi E. A. (2024) Evaluation of the Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Family Income and Sustainability in Ondo City, Nigeria. International Journal of Home Economics, Hospitality and Allied Research, 3(1): 117-128
Koopmans, T. C. (1949). Optimum utilization of the transportation system. Econometrica, 17(Supplement), 136–146. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907301
Liu F., Lu .C., Gui L., Zhang Q., Tong X., Yuan M.(2023) Heuristics for Vehicle Routing Problem: A Survey and Recent Advances. arXiv:2303.04147v1 [cs.AI] 1-67
Lorenc, A. (2025) Predicting Fuel Consumption by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Based on the Regular City Bus Lines. Sustainability 17(1678). https://doi.org/10.3390/su17041678.
Luyi, E. O., Ogunjobi O. E. and Olorunjubee O. I. (2025) Removal of Fuel Subsidy and it's Effects on the Prices of Goods and Services in Okitipupa Local Government Area of Ondo State, Nigeria. International Journal Of Innovation, Management & Social Sciences. 1, 140-152.
Manuela A. L., Harahap R. P. B., Yoefitri T., Meizani N. and Hidayana R. A. (2025) Optimization Model in Transportation Based on Linear Programming. International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling. 6(2) . 171-175
Nadoo, V. (2022). The impact of fuel subsidies on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Economics, 112, 106223. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dp/2013/afr1302.pdf
National Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Nigeria poverty assessment 2022. Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Oghenenyerhovwo E. A. and Bright O. (2025)The study finds that the removal of fuel subsidy has affected transportation cost in Delta State. Journal of Economic Equity, Finance, and Taxation | Volume 1(2), 63-73
Olusegun O. A., Afolabi Q. B. and Ogola D. B. (2023) Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Gross Domestic Product and Transportation Cost in Nigeria. European Journal of theoretical and Applied Science.1(5) Pp 769-777
Orluchukwu G. and Thankgod F. L. (2024) Fuel Subsidy Removal in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects. Journal of Policy and Development Studies (JPDS). 17(2) 92-108
Papară C. (2022) An empirical study of large transportation networks and solutions for the cost optimization. International Journal of Advanced Statistics and IT&C for Economics and Life Sciences. 12(02) 41-52
Prifti V., Dervishi I., Dhoska K. Markja I. and Pramono A.(2020) Minimization of transport costs in an industrial company through linear programming. International Conference on Advanced Mechanical and Industrial engineering . Pp 1-10. doi:10.1088/1757-899X/909/1/012040
Prokudin, G., Oliskevych, M., Сhupaylenko, O., & Maidanik, K. (2020). Optimization model of freight transportation on the routes of international transport corridors. Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics, 5(1), 66-76. doi:10.14254/jsdtl.2020.5- 1.7
Reinfeld, N. V., & Vogel, W. R., (1958). Mathematical Programming. Prentice Hall. LCCN: 58011418. https://books.google.com.ng/books?id=qVHQAAAAMAAJ
Samaila M. L., Adamu H. and Murtala M. (2024) Effect Of Fuel Subsidy Removal On Commodity Prices In Sokoto Metropolis, Sokoto State, Nigeria. UMYU Journal of Accounting and Finance Research. .6(1) Pp 190-198. https://doi.org/10.61143/umyu-jafr.6(1)2024.015
Samson O. S., Ezekiel O. I., Joseph B., Daniel A. A. and Mudashir A. O. (2024) Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Agricultural Production among Smallholder Farmers in Niger State, Nigeria. Journal of Economics, Business Management and Administration. pp 7-17
Shammah S. K. and Atama A. M. (2019) Minimization of Transportation Cost Problems. Mathematical Theory and Modeling 9(3) Pp. 35-46
Shimbura G., Umar U. D. & Mai-lafia J. S. (2025)Effect of Fuel Subsidy Removal on the Transportation System in Jalingo Metropolis, Taraba State. International Journal Of African Innovation & Multidsciplinary Research 9(2) Pp 45-56.
Stanfast S. B. and Marian L. A. (2020) Transportation Model and Cost Control in Nigerian Manufacturing Firms. International Journal of Advanced Academic Research (Social And Management Sciences. 6(12) Pp. 41- 52. Doi: 10.46654/Ij.24889849
Tanash M. and As’ad R. (2025) Heuristic Algorithms for the Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem With Time Windows, Customers Priority, Pickup and Delivery. IEEE Access 13(2025). 110605- 110622
Teravaninthorn, S., & Raballand, G. (2009). Transport prices and costs in Africa. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-7650-8
Vogel, W. R. (1958). A special algorithm for the transportation problem. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 5(1), 67–70. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800050109
World Bank. (2020). Doing business 2020. World Bank Publications.
Wu F. and Zhu Y. (2021) Transportation route optimization based on heuristic algorithm Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2083 (2021) doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2083/3/032016
Yunusa E., Yakubu Y., Emeje Y. A., Ibrahim Y. B., Stephen E. And Egbunu D. A.(2023) Fuel Subsidy Removal And Poverty in Nigeria: A Literature Review. Int. J. Applied Management Science. 04(09), 14-27
Zhang N. L and Xie ., F. R. (2025) A Review of Research on the Transportation
a. Problem. Open Journal of Applied Sciences. 15(5), 1168-1177
Ziółkowski J., Hošková-Mayerová S., Hutsaylyuk V. and Łukasiak D. (2025) Optimization of Road Transport Within the Supply Network – A Case Study From Poland. Transport Problems 20(01) 193-206. DOI: 10.20858/tp.2025.20.1.16
Zitzler, E., Laumanns, M., & Thiele, L. (2001). SPEA2: Improving the strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm (TIK Report No. 103). ETH Zurich
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
All articles published in our journal are licensed under CC-BY 4.0, which permits authors to retain copyright of their work. This license allows for unrestricted use, sharing, and reproduction of the articles, provided that proper credit is given to the original authors and the source.